000 AXNT20 KNHC 120553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Mar 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0525 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N64W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers to isolated strong convection are evident ahead of the front, especially north of 23N and west of 55W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to gale-force southerly winds ahead of the front to 50W and north of 20N. Fresh to gale-force NW-W winds are noted behind the front to 77W and north of 22N. These winds are producing rough to very rough seas, peaking near 17 ft near 28N72W. The front is expected to reach from 31N58W to the Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to NE Dominican Republic by Thu morning. The southern portion of the front will then become stationary near the coastal waters of Puerto Rico by Fri morning then dissipate. Winds behind the front will diminish below gale force tonight while gales ahead of the front will persist through Wed night. Large NW to W swell behind the front is producing a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater N of 25N between the front and 77W tonight that will shift eastward through Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Due to persistent large swell, the 12 to 16 ft seas are expected to persist west of 55W into early Fri. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N19W. The ITCZ extends from 02N19W to 01S33W and to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and between 15W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure dominates the basin and maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are evident west of 93W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found off western Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a 1018 mb high pressure centered over the N central Gulf will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Wed night then into the W Atlantic Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf Wed, then increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the basin Fri and Fri night, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, and weaken from near SE Louisiana to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from SE Cuba to northern Honduras, supporting isolated, shallow showers near the boundary. High pressure over the central Atlantic supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean waters, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are slight to moderate ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will gradually become W to E aligned from central Hispaniola to northern Belize by Wed night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail N of the front through Wed morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure N of the area will support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean Fri night through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning in the SW North Atlantic. The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a strong cold front moving across its waters and the impacts associated with this boundary are described in the Special Features section. Farther east, a cold front enters the basin near 31N23W to 27N33W, followed by a stationary front to 23N52W. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Fresh to strong W-NW winds are present north of 29N and between 23W and 40W, along with rough seas. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustain moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of 21N. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring between the Cabo Verde Islands and the African mainland. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front continues to move E-SE across the western Atlantic tonight, and extends from near 31N64W to extreme eastern Cuba. Gale force SW winds, rough seas, and strong thunderstorms continue along the front N of 25N, while strong to gale-force NW to W winds and very rough seas prevail behind front N of 25N. The front is expected to reach from 31N58W to the Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to NE Dominican Republic by Thu morning. The southern portion of the front will then become stationary near the coastal waters of Puerto Rico by Fri morning then dissipate. Winds behind the front will diminish below gale force tonight while gales ahead of the front will persist through Wed night. Large NW to W swell behind the front is producing a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater N of 25N between the front and 77W tonight that will shift eastward through Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. $$ Delgado