861 AXNT20 KNHC 111804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Mar 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front associated with a 992 mb low off the North Carolina coast curves southwestward through 31N69W and the southeast Bahamas to beyond the Great Bahama Bank. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 100 nm southeast of this front. Near-gale to gale-force winds from the W to NW are found behind this front north of 30N between 74W and 78W, and from the SW are ahead of this front north of 27N between 69W and 71W. The combination of wind waves and large NW swell is creating seas of 12 to 16 ft north of 27N between 71W and 79W. As the front progresses eastward through Wednesday, gales behind it should decrease below gale- force later this evening. For the gales ahead of the front, they will shift eastward and persist into late Wednesday afternoon then decrease below gale- force. Due to persistent large swell, the 12 to 16 ft seas are expected to move eastward and persist through Saturday. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough runs southwestward from the northern coast of Guinea to 01N19W, then an ITCZ continues westward through 02S30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01N45W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from the Equator to 06N between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the ITCZ from 03S to 02N between 20W and 44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high just southwest of New Orleans dominates much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present at the eastern and western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas developing across most of the Gulf Fri and Fri night, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf early Sat, and weaken from near southeastern Louisiana to just north of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends southwestward from central Cuba to west of the Cayman Islands at 19N84W, then continues as a stationary front to northern Honduras. Patchy showers are occurring up to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. A broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the central Atlantic to near Jamaica. This feature continues a trade- wind regime across the Caribbean east of the aforementioned frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident behind the cold front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft dominate the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward and reach from eastern Cuba to central Honduras by this evening, and from Haiti to northern Nicaragua by Wed morning before dissipating. Expect fresh N winds and moderate seas behind the front through late this morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse to fresh to strong at night Thu into the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras and northwestern Caribbean Fri night through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Besides the cold front and related weather mentioned in the Special Features section, another cold front curves southwestward from the Azores through 31N30W to 24N45W, then continues as a surface trough to 02N56W. Scattered showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side of these features. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the Gale Warning area with the 12 to 16 ft seas, fresh to strong SW to W to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are found near the first cold front north of 23N between 60W and the Florida coast/Bahamas. Farther south, moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted from 20N to 23N between 60W and the Great Bahama Bank. Gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in moderate to large NW swell dominate north of 20N between 35W and 60W. For the Tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are present. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the first cold front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by this evening, from 31N59W to the Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to the northern coast of Hispaniola by Thu morning. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling across the coastal waters of Puerto Rico early Fri before dissipating. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. $$ Chan