127 AXNT20 KNHC 110451 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Mar 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A 999 mb low pressure system located offshore the North Carolina-South Carolina border will shift eastward tonight, dragging a cold front across the western Atlantic waters. The front currently extends from the low through 31N76W to the Straits of Florida. Strong to gale-force SW winds and rough to very rough seas are expected tonight through Tue within 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N, accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Strong to near gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas are expected behind the front and N of 27N through Tue night. The front will reach from near Bermuda to east-central Cuba by Tue afternoon and from 31N58W to NE Cuba by Wed morning. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and continues southwestward to 00N32W. The ITCZ extends from 00N32W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from south of 04N and between 10W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The frontal boundary that moved across the basin has all but departed the region, except for a few showers in the Florida Straits. Behind the front, a 1020 mb high pressure system and continental dry air dominate the Gulf waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds in the eastern Gulf, especially east of 90W. Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft with the highest seas occurring off Tampa. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish from west to east through Tue morning. High pressure will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the basin by Fri, ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends from Pinar del Rio, Cuba, to Belize. The boundary is producing scattered showers that are affecting western Cuba, eastern Yucatan and Belize. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to strong northerly winds are occurring behind the front, along with seas of 4-8 ft. The highest seas are noted in the Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure system in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America result in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. These winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds tonight into Tue morning, then return Sat night as high pressure strengthen across the western Atlantic. A cold front has begun to enter the northwestern Caribbean tonight, and will reach from east-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, and from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Tue night before dissipating on Wed. Expect fresh N winds and moderate seas behind the front through Tue morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore the SE United States. A cold front extends from an strengthening low pressure off the Carolinas to Havana, Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and ahead of the frontal. A recent scatterometer satellite pass fresh to strong cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 65W and north of 24N. Moderate to rough seas are noted in these waters. Farther east, a surface trough enters the basin near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 22N60W. Moderate to strong cyclonic winds are evident north of 24N and between 25N and 48W. Seas in the area described are 8-12 ft. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of 20N and seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a 999 mb low pressure system located offshore the North Carolina-South Carolina border will shift eastward tonight, dragging a cold front across the western Atlantic waters. The front currently extends from the low through 31N76W to the Straits of Florida. Strong to gale-force SW winds and rough to very rough seas are expected tonight through Tue within 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N, accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Strong to near gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas are expected behind the front and N of 27N through Tue night. The front will reach from near Bermuda to east-central Cuba by Tue afternoon and from 31N58W to NE Cuba by Wed morning. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. $$ Delgado