000 AXNT20 KNHC 102240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Mar 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system and an associated cold front is moving eastward off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this and evening. Strong S to SW winds are expected within 300 nm ahead of the front, with strong thunderstorms likely to develop along and ahead of the front as well. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in both the area of strong S to SW winds and also within areas of stronger convection. Strong to gale- force W to NW winds and very rough seas will quickly develop again behind the front beginning this evening. The front will reach from Bermuda to east central Cuba Tue afternoon, followed by strong to gale- force winds and rough to very rough seas. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and seas will dissipate from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 01N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 01N20W to 02S27W, and from 01S35W to 02S43W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 10W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to Cancun, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front is the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow the front over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the western Gulf. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish from west to east through early Tue as the front exits the Gulf region this evening. High pressure will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the basin by Fri, ahead of a cold front moving through the southerly Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak ridging over the western Atlantic dominates the Caribbean basin. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds prevail across the central Caribbean, with locally strong trade winds occurring offshore Colombia. Moderate SE to S winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, ahead of the Gulf of America cold front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas of 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across most of the basin, except for seas 5 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the weak high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. These winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds tonight into Tue morning, then return Sat night as high pressure strengthen across the western Atlantic. A cold front currently moving across the southeast Gulf of America will enter the northwestern Caribbean this evening, reach from east-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, and from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Tue night before dissipating on Wed. Expect fresh N winds and moderate seas behind the front through Tue morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore the SE United States. A 1000 mb low pressure center off South Carolina is moving NNE toward the central Atlantic. A trailing cold front reaches southward from the low pressure to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough are noted both ahead and behind the front north of 25N and west of 72W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere north of 25N and west of 65W. Farther east, a trough reaches from 31N36W to 20N60W. 1018 mb high pressure is centered between these features near 27N60W, and ahead of the trough near 22N40W. Moderate to fresh winds follow the trough and within 90 nm ahead of the trough. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft covers much of the Atlantic north of 22N and east of 55W, and along the coast of Africa. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure system located offshore South Carolina will shift eastward tonight. An associated cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast this evening, accompanied by strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to likely persist mainly across the waters N of 29N through Tue night into Wed morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to east-central Cuba Tue afternoon. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. $$ Christensen