000 AXNT20 KNHC 092324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Mar 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front moving through the central Gulf currently reaches from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong winds and rough seas follow the front, with winds reaching gale force near Veracruz. Winds should fall below gale force late this evening, with improving conditions Mon as the front moves SE of the basin. W Atlantic Gale Warning: On Mon, a complex low and frontal system will move off the Carolina coasts and induce strong S to SW winds ahead of the front and strong to gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas behind the front. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas Tue morning, and from 31N60W to the N coast of Haiti by Wed morning. Gale conditions should remain N of 28N between 70W and 80W into Tue, before the low pressure system lifts further N of the area, and winds subside slightly. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 07N13W and continues to 01N17W. The ITCZ resumes near 03N15W and extends to the 00N27W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of 06N between 13W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Gale Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico. A 1011 mb low pressure center located near Pensacola, Florida, has a cold front extending SW from it to the central Bay of Campeche. A stationary front stretches E of the low the Florida Big Bend. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 60 nm of all of these features, N of 26N. Behind the cold front, strong NW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail. To the east of the front, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail, although pulses of fresh southerly winds are coming off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight in and near the Florida Straits. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night as the aforementioned cold front exits the Gulf. High pressure will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the basin by Fri, ahead of a cold front moving through the southerly Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak ridging dominates the basin. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail across the central Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong E winds occurring offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate SE winds are occurring in the NW Caribbean, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the basin, except for seas 5 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Gulf of America and enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, then stall from eastern Cuba to Belize Wed before dissipating Wed night. Expect fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the front through Tue morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore the SE United States. Large W to NW swell generated by a storm system centered north of the area is shifting eastward across the central Atlantic waters today. Seas of 10 to 12 ft are occurring north of 25N between 40W and 56W. This swell will shift into the eastern Atlantic early this week. A cold front has stalled along 31N from S of Bermuda to NE Florida. To the east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N45W to 22N60W. Winds associated with both of these features are moderate or less, and seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. S of 20N, a moderate to fresh trade-wind regime dominates, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the far E Atlantic, 8 to 11 ft seas and fresh N winds dominate waters between the Cabo Verde and Canary islands, with waters N of the Canary Islands having very rough seas up to 15 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending between northeast Florida and Bermuda will lift north overnight ahead of low pressure approaching the area from the west. The low pressure will move off the Georgia coast early Mon. An associated cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, associated by increased winds and seas. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba, followed by strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens as it moves east of the area, with a trailing portion stalling along rough 20N before dissipating Thu. Winds and seas will dissipate from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. $$ Konarik