000
AXNT20 KNHC 092022
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Large W to NW swell generated
by a storm system centered north of the area is shifting eastward
across the western and central Atlantic waters early this morning.
Seas of 12 to 15 ft are occurring north of 27N between 43W and 
56W. Seas are forecast to gradually lower below 12 ft south of 
31N by late Sun evening, as the swell shifts eastward and 
subsides.

SW Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front moving through the 
western Gulf currently reaches from the mouth of the Mississippi 
River to near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong winds and building seas 
follow the front, with winds reaching gale force near Veracruz. A
recent scatterometer pass indicated NW winds up to 42 kts 
offshore Veracruz. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are also behind the front,
with the highest seas occurring W of 94W. Winds and seas 
will gradually diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night 
as the front exits the Gulf.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: On Mon, a complex low and frontal system
will move off the Carolina coasts and induce fresh to strong S to
SW winds ahead of the front and strong W to NW winds and very 
rough seas behind the front. The front will reach from 31N70W to 
the central Bahamas Tue morning, and from 31N62W to the N coast of
Hispaniola by Wed morning. NW gales are possible behind the front
and N of 28N early Tue.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of 
Africa near 07N13W and continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ resumes near
03N15W and extends to the 0.5S27W. A trough along and near 30W 
breaks the ITCZ, with the second segment of the ITCZ running from
00S33W to 02S45W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted S of 06N between 07W and 40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about an 
upcoming Gale Warning today.

A cold front extends from a surface low near 30N89W to the  
Mexican coast near Veracruz. Scattered thunderstorms are 
occurring across and near the Florida Panhandle in the vicinity 
of the frontal passage. Strong NW to N winds are building in 
behind the front, and quickly raising seas to near 10 ft at this 
time. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging extends from the western 
Atlantic into the southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S 
winds are noted over the south-central and SE Gulf, between the 
high pressure and lower pressure over northeastern Mexico and 
southern Texas, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate S 
winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for light 
breezes and 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf. 

For the forecast, a cold front moving through the western Gulf 
currently reaches from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near 
Veracruz, Mexico. Strong winds and building seas follow the front,
with winds reaching gale force near Veracruz. Drier air behind 
the front is starting to clear out areas of fog and haze over the 
northwest Gulf, but patches of fog may persist over the northeast 
Gulf ahead of the front through the afternoon. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night as the
front exits the Gulf. Looking ahead, high pressure will slide 
eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu, possibly 
supporting fresh SW winds over the northwest Gulf Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging dominates the basin. Moderate to fresh E winds
prevail across the central Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong
E winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh SE winds
are also occurring in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas 3 to 5 ft seas are noted 
across the basin, except for seas 5 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure prevails across the western 
Atlantic north of the area. This pattern supports moderate to 
fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela pulsing to fresh to strong during the 
evening and early morning hours through Tue morning. A similar 
scenario is also expected across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun 
morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Gulf of 
America and enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon evening, reach
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, then 
dissipate from the N coast of Haiti to the Gulf of Honduras early 
Wed. Expect fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas
behind the front through Tue morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell across portions of the western Atlantic. 

Another cold front is entering the waters offshore NE Florida,
with fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and W of 78W, with
moderate to fresh NE winds behind the front and between 70W and
78W. A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to near 29N49W, 
where it becomes a stationary front that extends to 22N60W. 
Moderate SW winds are found ahead of the front, north of 23N 
between 38W and the front. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the front north of 
28N. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are observed via 
scatterometer data behind the front and north of 28N between 52W 
and 75W, with locally fresh W to NW winds along and north of 30N. 
Light to gentle breezes are evident elsewhere west of the front. 
Large W to NW swell is producing seas of 8 to 14 ft behind the 
front, and east of 66W. Another area of 8 to 14 ft seas is 
occurring N of 19N between the African coast and 35W, highest to 
the N of the Canary Islands. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE to
E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N and east of the
Lesser Antilles. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to SW winds and 
rough seas will prevail over the waters north of 29N and east of 
70W through this afternoon as a cold front moves N of the area. 
Rough to very rough seas in large W to NW swell dominates the 
waters E of 63W this morning, and will shift eastward and 
gradually subside through tonight. On Mon, a complex low and 
frontal system will move off the Carolina coasts and induce fresh 
to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front and strong W to NW 
winds and very rough seas behind the front. The front will reach 
from 31N70W to the central Bahamas Tue morning, and from 31N62W to
the N coast of Hispaniola by Wed morning, then drift SE and 
weaken quickly through Thu morning. NW gales are possible behind 
the front and N of 28N early Tue. High pressure will dominate the 
area waters late Wed through Thu. 

$$
Adams