341 AXNT20 KNHC 081657 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Mar 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Rough seas generated by a storm system centered north of the area is shifting eastward across the western and central Atlantic this afternoon. This pattern is supporting seas of 12 to 14 ft north of 29N between 50W and 65W through late tonight. The significant swell heights are forecast to gradually lower below 12 ft south of 31N through the weekend as the swell set shifts eastward. SW Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, and gale force NW winds will occur behind the front offshore of Veracruz on Sun, along with locally very rough seas. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are expected across much of the basin in the wake of the front as it moves southeastward Sun into Mon. Winds will diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues to 00N32W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 09W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for information about an upcoming SW Gulf Gale Warning. Weak surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic through the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds are noted over the south- central Gulf, between the high pressure and lower pressure over northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. Gentle to moderate S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will occur across the Gulf of America today, with fresh winds expected south of 25N and west of 85W, as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure east of the Bahamas and strengthening low pressure in the central United States. A cold front is slated to enter the northwestern basin tonight, and fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it moves southeastward Sun into Mon. Gale force NW winds will occur behind the front offshore of Veracruz on Sun, and locally very rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Winds will diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure will rebuild across the basin early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad ridging north of the area dominates the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds off Colombia, where 5 to 7 ft seas are likely. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in the Gulf of Honduras. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the basin this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds north of the area and low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Pulsing strong E to NE winds will occur each night and morning offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela, and locally rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the Gulf of America this weekend is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early next week, leading to fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on significant swell across portions of the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N50W to 25N58W where it becomes a stationary front to just north of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and within 180 NM east of the front, mainly north of 29N. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds near this convection. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted north of 28N and west of 70W, with light to gentle breezes evident elsewhere west of the front. Large NW swell of 8 to 14 ft follows the front, east of 70W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a cold front reaches from the coast of Morocco to 22N30W. Fresh N winds and 8 to 14 ft N swell follows the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will occur east of the cold front in the central Atlantic as a storm system lifts northeastward away from the forecast waters. Rough seas generated by this storm system will shift eastward across the western and central Atlantic through Sat night, before gradually decaying Sun and Mon. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 29N between 68W and 55W through late tonight. Farther west, a strengthening pressure gradient between high pressure east of the Bahamas and a complex low pressure system north of the area will lead to fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 29N between 80W and 60W today. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop on Mon off the coast of Florida ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The cold front is slated to move off the southeastern coast early next week, leading to widespread strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas in the wake of the front. Gale force winds will be possible in this region Mon night through Tue. $$ Christensen