000 AXNT20 KNHC 080521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Mar 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N53W to NE Dominican Republic. Very rough seas from swell generated by higher winds behind the front N of Bermuda are impacting waters N of 26N between 59W and 69W, with peak seas near 14 ft. The significant swell heights are forecast to gradually lower below 12 ft through the weekend as the swell set shifts eastward. SW Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front associated with a central U.S. low pressure system is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night. The front will quickly move across the basin through early Mon. The pressure gradient between high pressure building behind the front and the front will likely lead to the development of gale- force northwest to north winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, including offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Sun. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 07N13W and continues to 00N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 13W-38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for information about an upcoming SW Gulf gale warning. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered over central Bahamas. The pressure gradient in the area is leading to mainly moderate southerly winds. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf. No convection is present in the basin this evening. For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will occur across the Gulf of America on Sat, with fresh winds expected south of 25N and west of 85W, as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure over the Bahamas and strengthening low pressure in the central United States. A cold front is slated to enter the northwestern basin Sat night, and fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it moves southeastward Sun into Mon. Gale force NW winds will occur behind the front offshore of Veracruz on Sun, and locally very rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Winds will diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure will rebuild across the basin early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh NE winds are noted in the Windward Passage behind a front, analyzed over the central Atlantic and ending over NE Dominican Republic. Moderate trades dominate most of the basin, except gentle easterly winds over parts of the northern Caribbean. Small areas of fresh to strong winds are present in the Bay Islands and Gulf of Honduras as well as offshore Colombia. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds north of the area and low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Pulsing strong E to NE winds will occur each night and morning offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela, and locally rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the Gulf of America this weekend is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early next week, leading to fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on significant swell across portions of the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N53W to NE Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and within 280 nm E of the front, mainly N of 27N. Fresh winds are also noted with this convection. Seas in excess of 8 ft prevail W of the front, mainly N of 21N and between 53W and 74W. To the E, another cold front is analyzed from 31N12W to 25N31W, then becomes stationary to 25N36W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas cover waters behind the cold front, with moderate winds and mainly rough seas N of the rest of the boundary. Elsewhere N of 23N, winds are moderate or less and seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft. To the S of 23N, moderate to fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue east of a cold front in the central Atlantic, extending from 31N53W to northeastern Hispaniola, through Sat morning as a storm system lifts northeastward away from the forecast waters. Rough seas generated by this storm system will shift eastward across the western and central Atlantic through Sat night, before gradually decaying Sun and Mon. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 27N between 70W and 55W through Sat. Farther west, a strengthening pressure gradient between high pressure over the Bahamas and a complex low pressure system north of the area will lead to moderate to fresh SW winds north of 29N and west of 70W overnight, with fresh to locally strong SW winds occurring north of 29N between 80W and 60W on Sat. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop on Mon off the coast of Florida ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The cold front is slated to move off the southeastern coast early next week, leading to widespread strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas in the wake of the front. Gale force winds will be possible in this region Mon night through Tue. $$ ERA