825 AXNT20 KNHC 071047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Mar 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N63W into the north-central Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 150 NM to the east of the front, and isolated showers are noted farther east around 55W. The cold front will progress eastward today, and gale force S to SW winds will occur ahead of the front north of 29N early this morning. Strong to near-gale force W to NW winds will also prevail behind the cold front north of 29N this morning. The storm system will lift northeastward today, allowing winds to diminish by tonight. Widespread rough seas generated by this system will continue to progress to the south and east over the next several days, producing rough seas in excess of 12 ft north of 25N between 75W and 59W, with seas over 12 ft extending to 52W through Sat. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are expected north of 27N between 75W and 63W today. Seas will slowly subside from west to east Sat through Sun. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 11N15W and extends to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 03N between 15W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high is centered in the eastern Gulf near 26N86W, and ridging extends through the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring near the center of the high pressure and off the west coast of Florida, where seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. Farther west, moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted west of 88W with associated seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, high pressure in the eastern Gulf of America will drift eastward through Sat, leading to gentle to moderate SE winds east of 85W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will prevail in the central and western basin today as the pressure gradient strengthens between the aforementioned high and developing low pressure in the central United States. A cold front associated with the low pressure system is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat night, leading to widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front Sun into Mon. Gale conditions and very rough seas will be possible offshore Veracruz on Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will rebuild across the basin early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to 19N86W, then transitions to a stationary front from that point to 19N88W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are noted north of the front, with seas of 2 to 5 ft. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails, with light to gentle winds dominating much of the Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds over the waters S of 15N and E of 75W. Seas are in the 2 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken and eventually diminish today. Moderate NE winds are expected in the wake of the front this morning, with locally fresh winds occurring through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, locally fresh NE winds will be possible offshore of Colombia this morning, with winds strengthening and expanding through the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Locally rough seas will occur near and to the west of the strongest winds offshore of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the Gulf of America this weekend is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean by early next week, leading to fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas in its wake. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section about the ongoing Gale Warning and large swell event currently occurring. A cold front extends from 31N63W into the north-central Caribbean. Aside from the gale force winds and large swell, fresh to near- gale force winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 24N and W of 55W. Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near 31N18W to 27N35W, then becomes stationary to 29N47W. Moderate to fresh NW to NW winds are found north of the fronts, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will progress eastward today, and gale force S to SW winds will occur ahead of the front north of 29N early this morning. Strong to near-gale force W to NW winds will also prevail behind the cold front north of 29N this morning. The storm system will lift northeastward today, allowing winds to diminish by tonight. Widespread rough seas generated by this system will continue to progress to the south and east over the next several days, producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 21N today, and north of 20N through Sat. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are expected north of 27N between 75W and 63W today. Seas will slowly subside from west to east Sat through Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front offshore of Florida later today, as a complex low pressure system strengthens north of the area. The pressure gradient between these features will support moderate to fresh SW winds north of 29N and west of 70W by late tonight, and west of 60W on Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to push off the coast of the southeastern United States early next week, leading to fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. $$ ADAMS