185 AXNT20 KNHC 061057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1215 UTC Thu Mar 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 31N74W to northwestern Cuba will progress rapidly eastward through Fri morning, producing gale-force S to SW winds and rough seas along and ahead of the front, generally north of 29N. Gale force W to NW winds are also anticipated in the wake of the front north of 29N through late tonight. Rough seas in W to NW swell associated with this storm system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 25N through Thu, and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. The storm system will lift northeastward and away from the forecast waters by Fri. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 01S75W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 04S to 03N between 10W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... As of 0600 UTC, a cold front has pushed southeast of the Gulf of America, and a second cold front extends from north-central Florida to 28N85W. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring across the eastern basin, with near-gale force winds occurring north of 26N and east of 85.5W. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft are noted in this region, with seas to 12 ft occurring near the near-gale force winds. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche in the wake of the cold front in the northwestern Caribbean. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high centered over southeastern Texas is extending ridging through the western basin. Moderate N winds and moderate seas are occurring in the central basin, with gentle E winds west of 95W. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NW winds will occur across the northeastern Gulf this morning, generally north of 25N and east of 90W, in the wake of a cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will accompany these winds before winds and seas diminish by this afternoon. High pressure building over the central United States today and on Fri will extend ridging through the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE to E winds will occur west of 90W this afternoon through Fri, with locally strong winds possible offshore of eastern Mexico and in the Bay of Campeche tonight. Farther east, moderate NW winds this afternoon will turn to the SE on Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf on Sat, producing widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas in its wake. Gale conditions and very rough seas will be possible offshore Veracruz on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the northwestern Caribbean Sea from western Cuba to eastern Belize, and moderate to locally fresh N winds are occurring north of the front. Elsewhere, locally fresh NE winds and seas to 6 ft are noted offshore of Colombia, near a 1009 mb low anchored over northwestern Colombia. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over much of the basin supports gentle to locally moderate trades and moderate seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will occur offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through this weekend as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia, and ridging persists north of the region. Locally rough seas may occur near and to the west of the strongest winds. A cold front in the northwestern Caribbean will progress southeastward and weaken today, and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will occur in the wake of the front into Fri morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin through Fri. Looking ahead, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will develop across the basin this weekend as a new cold front moves southeastward through the Gulf of America, entering the Caribbean early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds will be possible in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night into Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning off the coast of NE Florida. A cold front extends from 31N74W through the northern Bahamas and northwestern Cuba, and gale force SW winds are occurring ahead of the cold front north of 29N. A second cold front is noted from 31N78W to northeastern Florida, with gale force W to NW winds behind this front. Rough seas are propagating southeastward, producing rough seas over 8 ft north of 27N between 68W and 81W, with very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft north of 29N between 74W and 80W. Over the north-central subtropical waters, a stationary front continues to weaken along 31N39W to 28N55W. Fresh NE winds are found north of the front. The remainder Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N38W, which is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the tropics and gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere over the central and eastern subtropical waters. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N74W to northwestern Cuba will progress rapidly eastward through Fri morning, producing gale-force S to SW winds and rough seas along and ahead of the front, generally north of 29N. Gale force W to NW winds are also anticipated in the wake of the front north of 29N through late tonight. Rough seas in W to NW swell associated with this storm system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 25N through Thu, and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. The storm system will lift northeastward and away from the forecast waters by Fri, with high pressure building in its wake off the coast of the southeastern United States. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail north of a stationary front in the central Atlantic today, extending from 31N39W to 28N55W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E winds and locally rough seas will prevail south of 23N into this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern United States late this weekend, producing fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas off the coast of Florida into early next week. $$ ADAMS