000 AXNT20 KNHC 060554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 0615 UTC Thu Mar 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 31N76W to the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula will progress rapidly eastward through Fri morning, producing near to gale-force S to SW winds and rough seas along and ahead of the front, generally north of 27N. Gale force W to NW winds are also expected to develop in the wake of the front overnight off the northeastern coast of Florida, with gale-force winds occurring north of 28N through late Thu night. Rough seas in N to NW swell associated with this storm system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas through Thu, and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. The storm system will lift northeastward and away from the forecast waters by Fri. Gulf of America Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer pass shows ongoing near to gale-force NW winds in the NE Gulf N of 27N and E of 88W following a reinforcing cold front that at 0300 UTC extends from NE Florida near 31N82W SW to the offshore waters of Alabama near 29N87W. Gale force winds will continue in the far northeastern Gulf of America tonight with more widespread strong to near-gale force NW winds across the northeastern Gulf overnight in the wake of a leading cold front extending from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will accompany these winds, before winds and seas diminish through Thu morning. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and extends to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 00N32W to 01S45W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 03S to 02N between 10W and 47W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the NE Gulf. A leading cold front is moving off the SE Gulf waters tonight. As of 0300 UTC, this front extended across the Florida Straits, the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula. A reinforcing cold front extends from NE Florida near 31N82W SW to the offshore waters of Alabama near 29N87W. West of 87W, surface ridging continues to build in the wake of the front, tightening the pressure gradient over the NE Gulf tonight, which is leading to gales over that region. The ridge is anchored by a 1020 mb high that is centered over southern Texas offshore waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh N to NW winds over the north- central Gulf and gentle to moderate N to NE winds elsewhere across the western basin. Over the SE Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from the NNW. Seas are rough to 12 ft over the area of gales in the NE Gulf, 6-8 ft over the north-central waters and moderate to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Gale force winds will continue in the far northeastern Gulf of America tonight with more widespread strong to near-gale force NW winds across the northeastern Gulf overnight in the wake of a leading cold front extending from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will accompany these winds, before winds and seas diminish through Thu morning. Strong NE winds are also expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight. The cold fronts will exit the basin late tonight, and high pressure building over over the central United States on Thu and Fri will extend ridging through the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE to E winds will occur west of 90W on Thu and Fri, with locally strong winds possible offshore of western Mexico and in the Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon and evening. Farther east, moderate NW winds on Thu will turn to the SE on Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Gulf on Sat, producing widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds in its wake. Gale conditions and rough seas will be possible offshore Veracruz on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extending across the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula at 0300 UTC will be followed by moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds as it sinks in the NW Caribbean tonight. Current seas in this portion of the basin are 2-4 ft. The passage of this front and a surface trough NE of Puerto Rico, over the central subtropical Atlantic, is allowing generally a weak pressure gradient, which is resulting in gentle to locally moderate trades and moderate seas to 4 ft. Offshore Colombia, winds are locally fresh and seas 5-6 ft. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will occur offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through this weekend as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia, and ridging persists north of the region. Locally rough seas may occur near and to the west of the strongest winds. The cold front will continue to support moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front through Thu morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin through Fri. Looking ahead, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will develop across the basin this weekend as a new cold front moves southeastward through the Gulf of America. Fresh to strong SE winds will be possible in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night into Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning off the coast of NE Florida. Low pressure associated with a cold front is over the Bahamas and the Florida offshore waters. The cold front extends from 31N76W to the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula and is generating a line of heavy showers and tstms affecting the offshore waters NE of Freeport ahead of the front to about 72W. As mentioned in the Special Features, near to gale force S to SW winds are ahead of the front extending as far south as 27N per recent scatterometer data. Strong to near gale-force winds follow the front. Rough seas to 14 ft are present in the region of gales. Farther east, a surface trough developed, and extends from 25N61W to 21N62W to just E of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing in the vicinity of the trough with scatterometer data showing fresh SE winds E of its axis. Over the north-central subtropical waters, a stationary front continues to weaken along 31N41W to 28N50W to 27N58W. Scatterometer data show fresh NE winds N of the front. The remainder Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high near 29N38W, which is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the tropics and gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere over the central and eastern subtropical waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will progress rapidly eastward through Fri morning, producing gale-force S to SW winds and rough seas along and ahead of the front, generally north of 29N. Gale force W to NW winds are also expected to develop in the wake of the front overnight off the northeastern coast of Florida, with gale force winds occurring north of 29N through late Thu night. Rough seas in N to NW swell associated with this storm system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas N of 25N through Thu, and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. The storm system will lift northeastward and away from the forecast waters by Fri, with high pressure building in its wake off the coast of the southeastern United States. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail through Thu north of the stationary front in the central Atlantic. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E winds and locally rough seas will prevail south of 23N through this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern United States late this weekend, producing fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas off the coast of Florida into early next week. $$ Ramos