543 AXNT20 KNHC 050601 TWDAT TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 0615 UTC Wed Mar 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extending from SE Mississippi to Tampico, Mexico will progress southeastward overnight through Wed. S to SW gale force winds are expected tonight into early Wed in portions of the northeastern Gulf of America offshore of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and very rough seas will accompany these winds. Strong to near-gale force S to SW winds and rough seas will occur ahead of the cold front overnight north of 27N, with widespread fresh S winds likely across the eastern half of the basin. Behind the cold front, expect fresh to strong NW winds with occasional gusts to gale force as well as rough seas, mainly north of 28N in the northwestern Gulf, and offshore of Veracruz. Atlantic Gale Warning: Winds will strengthen to gale force Wed morning offshore of northeastern Florida as a cold front pushes off the coast and rapidly progresses eastward. Gale force winds will continue along and ahead of the front through Thu night north of 29N. Behind the front, gale force NW winds are expected Thu morning through Thu night north of 29N. N swell associated with this system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 22N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to 00N17W. The ITCZ continues from 00N17W to 02S32W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02S to 05N between 10W and 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for information on an ongoing Gale Warning. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Mississippi to Tampico, Mexico and is generating a line of heavy showers and tstms across the SE Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and the north- central and NE Gulf offshore waters. Gust to gale force southerly winds are ahead of the front over the offshore waters of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle where seas are 10 to 11 ft. Moderate to strong NW winds are ongoing behind the front over the NW Gulf where seas are 5-9 ft. Gentle to moderate NE winds are occurring over the western Bay of Campeche with SE winds of the same speed occuring over the eastern portion of the Bay. Seas in the SW Gulf are 2-5 ft. Over the SE Gulf and ahead of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE and seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will progress southeastward overnight through Wed. S to SW gale force winds are expected tonight into early Wed in portions of the northeastern Gulf of America offshore of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and very rough seas will accompany these winds. Strong to near-gale force S to SW winds and rough seas will occur ahead of the cold front overnight north of 27N, with widespread fresh S winds likely across the eastern half of the basin. Behind the cold front, expect fresh to strong NW winds with occasional gusts to gale force as well as rough seas, mainly north of 28N in the northwestern Gulf, and offshore of Veracruz. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail in the northeastern Gulf on Wed, north of 26N and east of 95W, as the front moves southeastward and exits the basin Wed night, and high pressure builds over the central United States. Ridging will extend over the basin on Thu, supporting moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the basin. The high pressure will move eastward toward N Florida on Fri producing moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. Another cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf by Sat night, and gale conditions will be possible offshore Veracruz on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1029 mb high is centered near 36N64W extending a ridge across the Bahamas and the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low continue to support fresh to locally strong winds offshore Colombia along with 8-9 ft seas. The passage of a cold front N of the E basin is leading to the continuation of gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas to 4 ft over that region. On the other hand, an approaching cold front in the Gulf of America slightly tightens the pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean, thus supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel along with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, trade winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong speeds offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each night and morning this week, as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. A strengthening pressure gradient between a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of America, the Colombian low, and high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong NE winds through the Windward Passage overnight, and fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed morning. The aforementioned cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Wed night into Thu and gradually weaken, leading to moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds behind the front. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean into this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning off the coast of NE Florida. A 1029 mb high centered near 36N64W extends a ridge across the Bahamas and continues to build in the wake of a cold front that extends from 31N47W SW to 25N55W to just E of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The front is generating showers and tstms from 22N to 27N between 55W and 65W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds follows the front and are affecting the Bahamas offshore waters to 50W and S of 29N. Between the front and the Bahamas, rough seas in the 8-10 ft range are ongoing. A broad surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb high SW of the Azores reaches into the tropical waters. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters are gentle to moderate from the NE to E and seas are 6-8 ft. Over the tropics, trades are moderate to fresh W of 38W and seas are 8-9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will occur tonight north of 25N and west of 75W ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern United States. Winds will strengthen to gale force Wed morning offshore of northeastern Florida as the front pushes off the coast and rapidly progresses eastward. Gale force winds will continue along and ahead of the front through Thu night north of 29N. Behind the front, gale force NW winds are expected Thu morning through Thu night north of 29N. N swell associated with this system will propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 22N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. The storm system will progress eastward across the central Atlantic through Fri before lifting north and east of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail north of a cold front, extending from 31N47W to 21N70W, overnight through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will prevail south of 25N this week. $$ Ramos