000 AXNT20 KNHC 041736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1815 UTC Tue Mar 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale force southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough seas are expected today over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northwestern basin by this afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will occur in the wake of the front, mainly offshore of the US Gulf coast, and offshore of Veracruz. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning, and move SE of area by Wed night. Frequent gusts to gale force may also occur near the Veracruz area. Atlantic Gale Warning: Widespread strong to near-gale force S winds and rough seas will be possible north of 27N and west of 75W tonight through Wed ahead of a cold front associated with a storm system currently moving E across the central US. The cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern coast of the US on Wed, and localized gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible surrounding the front as it moves eastward through Thu. Large N swell will propagate southeastward through late week, producing widespread rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 22N through Fri. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from 01N16W to 03S34W and then to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05S to 05N between 10W and 45W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for information on the ongoing Gale Warnings in the Gulf of America. A 1029 mb high is centered near 36N69W, and ridging extends southwestward into the Gulf of America. Inland over the US, a 988 mb low is located over western Kansas. The tightening pressure gradient between these features is supporting strong to near gale force winds W of 90W. Areas E of 90W are seeing fresh to strong SE winds prevail. Building seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted offshore of southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8 ft seas occurring through much of the remainder of the Gulf, aside from near the W coast of Florida where seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough seas are expected today over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northwestern basin by this afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will occur in the wake of the front, mainly offshore of the US Gulf coast, and offshore of Veracruz. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning, and move SE of area by Wed night. Frequent gusts to gale force may also occur near the Veracruz area. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail over the NW Gulf Wed night into Thu morning. On Thu, high pressure will be in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region supporting moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the basin. The high pressure will move eastward toward N Florida on Fri producing moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. Another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring offshore Colombia due to an enhanced pressure gradient between the Colombia Low and high pressure over the W Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are occurring across portions of the central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades persist across the remainder of the basin. Seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail through much of the basin, with seas of 4 to 7 ft noted in the area of fresh to strong winds offshore of Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure north of area combined with the Colombian low will lead to pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds through the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of Colombia this week, with the strongest winds occurring each night and morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected through early Wed across the Windward Passage and downwind of Cuba as the pressure gradient strengthens between a cold front in the central Atlantic, high pressure offshore of the eastern United States, and the Colombian low. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will be possible this evening into Wed in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Gale Warnings off the coast of NE Florida. A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N50W southwestward to 22N67W, where it then becomes a stationary front that extends to 25N77W. The stationary front is also in the process of dissipating into a shear line. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring from behind these features to about 27N between 65W an the NE Florida coast. NE winds elsewhere north of these fronts are moderate to fresh, along with 6 to 9 ft seas. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores. The modest pressure gradient is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E winds across much of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, with locally strong E winds occurring S of 20N between 40W and 58W. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring east of a line running from the Canary Islands to Cabo Verde, as well as in a corridor N of 25N between 35W and 45W. Moderate seas prevail across the majority of the basin, with 8 to 10 ft seas occurring within areas of locally strong winds. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 27N55W to 22N66W where it becomes stationary extending westward across the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure just offshore of the eastern United States will support a belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the front to about 27N, including the NW and central Bahamas today. At the same time, winds will turn to the SE and strengthen offshore of Florida today as a strong storm system moves through the central and eastern United States. Widespread strong to near-gale force S winds and rough seas will be possible north of 27N and west of 75W tonight through Wed ahead of a cold front associated with the storm system. The cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern coast of the US on Wed, and gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible surrounding the front as it moves eastward through Thu. Large N swell will propagate southeastward through late week, producing widespread rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 22N through Fri. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will prevail south of 25N this week. $$ Adams