000 AXNT20 KNHC 041058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1215 UTC Tue Mar 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Winds will turn to the SE and strengthen offshore of Florida today as a strong storm system moves through the central and eastern United States. Widespread strong to near- gale force S winds and rough seas will be possible north of 27N and west of 75W tonight through Wed ahead of a cold front associated with the storm system. The cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern coast of the US on Wed, and local gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible surrounding the front as it moves eastward through Thu. Large N swell will propagate southeastward through late week, producing widespread rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 22N through Fri. Gulf of America Gale Warning: Fresh to strong SE winds will occur in the central and western Gulf of America today as a storm system strengthens in the central United States. A warm front will lift northward through the north-central Gulf this morning, promoting widespread fresh to strong S winds and rough seas for areas west of 85W. A strong pressure gradient associated with the storm system may support a period of gale force winds in the northeastern Gulf offshore of Alabama and Mississippi. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to 01S22W. The ITCZ continues from 01S22W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N between 10W and 44W. GULF OF AMERICA... A 1027 mb high is centered offshore of Virginia, USA, and ridging extends southwestward into the Gulf of America. Elsewhere, a 986 mb low is strengthening over the Central High Plains. The tightening pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate SE winds east of 87W including through the Florida Straits. West of 87W, fresh to strong SE winds prevail. Building seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted offshore of southeastern Texas, with moderate seas occurring through the central and western Gulf with the exception of the Bay of Campeche, where slight seas prevail. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are occurring in the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will occur in the central and western Gulf of America today as a storm system strengthens in the central United States. A warm front will lift northward through the north-central Gulf this morning, promoting widespread fresh to strong S winds and rough seas for areas west of 85W. A strong pressure gradient associated with the storm system may support a period of near-gale force winds in the northeastern Gulf offshore of Alabama and Mississippi. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin later today, with fresh to locally strong N to NW winds expected behind the front, mainly offshore of the US Gulf coast, and offshore of Veracruz. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail east of 92W and north of 25W Wed into Thu as the cold front moves southeastward through the basin. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the central United States late this week will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward into northwestern Hispaniola and to 11N76W. Locally fresh NE winds are occurring in the wake of the front through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Farther south, low pressure over northwestern Colombia is maintaining locally fresh E winds in the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh to strong winds offshore of northwestern Colombia. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail through much of the basin, with seas of 4 to 7 ft noted in the area of fresh winds offshore of Colombia. For the forecast, prevailing low pressure over northwestern Colombia will lead to pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds through the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of Colombia this week, with the strongest winds occurring each night and morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected through early Wed across the Windward Passage and downwind of Cuba as the pressure gradient strengthens between a cold front in the central Atlantic, high pressure offshore of the eastern United States, and the Colombian low. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will be possible this evening into Wed in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging continues to build over the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of a cold front that at 0600 UTC extends from 31N53W to 20N73W to just east of Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring north and west of the front north of 23N. Rough seas in the 8-10 ft range associated with this front are affecting the Bahamas offshore waters. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores. The modest pressure gradient is forcing moderate to fresh E winds in the trade waters region of the central Atlantic, especially west of 28W. Seas in these waters are 8 to 10 ft. Over the eastern subtropical waters, fresh N to NE winds prevail W of the Canary Islands to about 31W, supporting rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range, highest N of 25N. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas will occur north of 20N through midweek as a strong pressure gradient prevails between a cold front in the central Atlantic and high pressure just offshore of the eastern United States. Strong NE winds will be possible through the Bahamas and west of 65W this morning, with strong winds expanding farther east to 55W this afternoon into Wed. Elsewhere, winds will turn to the SE and strengthen offshore of Florida today as a strong storm system moves through the central and eastern United States. Widespread strong to near-gale force S winds and rough seas will be possible north of 27N and west of 75W tonight through Wed ahead of a cold front associated with the storm system. The cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern coast of the US on Wed, and local gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible surrounding the front as it moves eastward through Thu. Large N swell will propagate southeastward through late week, producing widespread rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and north of 22N through Fri. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will prevail south of 25N this week. $$ ADAMS