000 AXNT20 KNHC 040543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 0015 UTC Tue Mar 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and continues to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W to 00N33W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 08N between 15W and 44W. GULF OF AMERICA... A center of high pressure of 1028 mb over the Carolinas offshore waters extends a ridge across the eastern half of the Gulf of America while low presure continues to build W of 90W ahead of the next cold front. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh SE winds over the western half of the basin and gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W. Buoy and oil platforms are also showing locally strong SE winds over the NW Gulf. Seas are moderate to 5 ft E of 90W, 3-4 ft over the SW waters and 5-7 ft over the NW Gulf waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will occur through Tue in the central and western Gulf of America as a storm system strengthens in the central United States. A warm front will lift northward through the north-central Gulf Tue morning and afternoon, promoting widespread fresh to strong S winds and rough seas for areas west of 85W. A strong pressure gradient associated with the storm system will support near-gale force winds in the northeastern Gulf offshore of Alabama and Mississippi. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin later on Tue, with fresh to locally strong N to NW winds expected behind the front, mainly offshore of the US Gulf coast, and offshore of Veracruz. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail east of 90W and north of 25W Wed into Thu as the cold front moves southeastward through the basin. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the central United States late this week will support moderate E to SE winds across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... The passage of a cold front N of the area is maintaining a weak presure gradient across most of the basin, thus of the continuation of mainly gentle to moderate E winds, except off Colombia where the influence of the mountainous terrain support fresh to locally strong NE winds. Seas are 3 ft over the NW and portions of the SW waters, and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere. Otherwise, the tail of a cold front reaching eastern Cuba is generating showers and isolated tstms across Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and Jamaica adjacent waters. For the forecast, prevailing low pressure over northwestern Colombia will lead to pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds through the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of Colombia this week, with the strongest winds occurring each night and morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected tonight into early Wed through the Windward Passage and downwind of Cuba as the pressure gradient strengthens between a cold front in the central Atlantic, building high pressure over the eastern United States, and the Colombian low. Fresh to locally strong SE winds will be possible Tue night into Wed in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging continues to build over the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of a cold front that at 0000 UTC extends from 31N55W to 25N65W to eastern Cuba. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE winds S of 28N following the front and moderate to fresh NW winds N of 28N between 57W and 63W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing elsewhere N of the Bahamas. Rough seas in the 8-10 ft range associated with this front are affecting the Bahamas offshore waters. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores. The modest pressure gradient is forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds in the trade waters region of the central Atlantic, especially west of 28W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Over the eastern subtropical waters, fresh N to NE winds prevail W of the Canary Islands to about 31W, supporting rough seas in the 8-10 ft range, highest N of 25N. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas will occur north of 20N through midweek as a strong pressure gradient prevails between a cold front in the central Atlantic and high pressure just offshore of the eastern United States. Strong NE winds will be possible through the Bahamas and west of 65W through Tue morning, with strong winds expanding farther east to 55W Tue afternoon into Wed. Elsewhere, winds will turn to the SE and strengthen offshore of Florida on Tue as a strong storm system moves through the central and eastern United States. Widespread strong to near-gale force S winds and rough seas will be possible north of 27N and west of 75W Tue night through Wed ahead of a cold front associated with the storm system. The cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern coast of the US on Wed, and local gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible surrounding the front as it moves eastward through Thu. $$ Ramos