000
AXNT20 KNHC 032301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
0015 UTC Tue Mar 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and continues to 02.5N12.5W. The ITCZ 
extends from 02.5N12.5W to 00N25W to 01N43W to the coast of
Brazilnear 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed south of 05N and west of 15W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

1027 mb high pressure is centered along the eastern seaboard of
the U.S. and extends a ridge southward that dominates the Gulf 
of America. This is producing generally dry and stable weather 
conditions. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are 
prevalent in the western portion of the basin, while mainly 
moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern United States 
will support moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow across the
basin. Strong S to SE winds and rough seas are expected to 
develop west of 90W tonight as low pressure strengthens in the 
central United States, with strong winds extending farther east 
through the central and northeastern Gulf Tue into Wed. A cold 
front associated with the low pressure system will enter the 
northwestern basin on Tue and progress southeastward through 
midweek before exiting the Gulf by early Thu. Strong to near-gale
force N to NW winds are expected offshore of Veracruz by early 
Wed in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will 
build over the central United States by late week, supporting 
moderate E to SE winds across the basin. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pockets of low-level moisture are moving across eastern and 
central portions of Caribbean Sea, producing widely scattered
light showers. Some of this activity is impacting the islands, 
including Puerto Rico and Haiti. A broad high pressure ridge to 
the north of the area is centered along the eastern seaboard of
the U.S. and supports fresh NE-E winds in the south-central 
Caribbean offshore of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to strong offshore
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and morning 
through midweek as a modest ridge remains north of the area. A 
tightening pressure gradient between the Colombian low, a front 
moving through the central Atlantic, and building high pressure 
in the western Atlantic, will support fresh NE winds through the
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba tonight into early Wed, 
and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue 
night into Wed. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern 
Caribbean through the week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A prominent cold front enters the basin near 31N59W and 
continues southwestward to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident within 
150 nm ahead of the boundary, becoming scattered to numerous N of
28N. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are found west of the frontal
boundary, especially north of 26N. Seas in these waters are 8-11
ft. Fresh to near gale-force southerly winds are noted ahead of 
the boundary to 50W and north of 26N. Seas in the area described
are 7-10 ft. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
1028 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores. The 
modest pressure gradient is forcing fresh to locally strong 
easterly winds in the trade waters region of the central 
Atlantic, especially west of 30W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 
ft. Farther east, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to
rough seas are found east of 30N and north of 20N. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic cold front will progress
to the south and east through Tue before dissipating midweek.  
Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will 
occur today north of 26.5N between 60W and 75W. Rough seas in N 
to NW swell will propagate through much of the open waters early 
this week, with seas in excess of 8 ft north of 26N by late 
morning, and north of 22N Tue morning. Fresh to strong trade 
winds and rough seas are likely south of 25N through this evening,
then moderate to fresh trades are expected through the rest of 
the week. Elsewhere, high pressure over the eastern United 
States will support fresh to strong E to SE winds off the coast 
of Florida and through the Bahamas by early Tue. More widespread 
fresh to strong S winds will develop in this region Tue night 
ahead of a strong cold front entering the northwestern basin on 
Wed. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough 
seas are expected surrounding an associated low pressure system, 
as it moves eastward, and gale force winds will be possible 
behind the cold front late week. 

$$
Stripling