000 AXNT20 KNHC 031621 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1815 UTC Mon Mar 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 05N08W and continues to 02N16W. The ITCZ extends from 02N16W to 00N30W and to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and west of 15W. GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure dominates the Gulf of America allowing for generally dry conditions. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent in the western portion of the basin, while mainly moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure building over the eastern United States will support moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the basin. Strong S to SE winds and rough seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as low pressure strengthens in the central United States, with strong winds extending farther east through the central and northeastern Gulf Tue into Wed. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will enter the northwestern basin on Tue and progress southeastward through midweek before exiting the Gulf by early Thu. Strong to near-gale force N to NW winds are expected offshore of Veracruz by early Wed in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the central United States by late week, supporting moderate E to SE winds across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Pockets of low-level moisture are moving across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, producing isolated, shallow showers. Some of this activity is impacting the islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A broad high pressure system to the north of the area supports fresh NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and morning through midweek as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. A tightening pressure gradient between the Colombian low, a front moving through the central Atlantic, and building high pressure in the western Atlantic will support fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba tonight into early Wed, and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A prominent cold front enters the basin near 31N61W and continues southwestward to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident within 150 nm ahead of the boundary. Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are found west of the frontal boundary, especially north of 26N. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to near gale-force southerly winds are noted ahead of the boundary to 47W and north of 26N. Seas in the area described are 7-10 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores. The modest pressure gradient forces fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the trade waters region of the central Atlantic, especially west of 30W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Farther east, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found east of 30N and north of 20N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will progress to the south and east through Tue before dissipating midweek. A brief period of gale force winds are expected through this afternoon in the vicinity of the front and north of 30N. Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will occur today north of 26.5N between 60W and 75W. Rough seas in N to NW swell will propagate through much of the open waters early this week, with seas in excess of 8 ft north of 26N by late morning, and north of 22N Tue morning. Fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are likely south of 25N today, then moderate to fresh trades are expected through the rest of the week. Elsewhere, high pressure building over the eastern United States will support fresh to strong E to SE winds off the coast of Florida and through the Bahamas by early Tue. More widespread fresh to strong S winds will develop in this region Tue night ahead of a strong cold front entering the northwestern basin on Wed. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected surrounding the associated low pressure system as it moves eastward, and gale force winds will be possible behind the cold front late week. $$ Delgado/GR