000 AXNT20 KNHC 031053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Mar 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to 01S49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 04N from the western coast of Africa to the northeastern coast of South America. GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front resides over the western Gulf of America, spanning from 24N91W to the southeastern coast of Texas. Otherwise, ridging is building over the basin. Gentle to locally moderate E to NE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf east of 85W, with moderate to locally fresh SE winds occurring in the central and western basin. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the eastern and southwestern Gulf, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in the northwestern basin. For the forecast, high pressure building over the eastern United States will support moderate N to NE winds over the central and eastern Gulf of America today, with moderate to fresh E to SE winds occurring in the western Gulf. Strong S to SE winds and rough seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as low pressure strengthens in the central United States, with strong winds extending farther east through the central and northeastern Gulf Tue into Wed. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will enter the northwestern basin on Tue and progress southeastward through midweek before exiting the Gulf by early Thu. Strong to near-gale force N to NW winds are expected offshore of Veracruz by early Wed in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the central United States by late week, supporting moderate E to SE winds across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from southeastern Cuba northeastward into the central Atlantic. Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low prevails over northwestern Venezuela, supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of Colombia. Moderate trade winds are noted across the remainder of the basin, with locally fresh E winds occurring west of the Windward Islands. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean, while seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted in the northwestern basin. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and morning through midweek as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. A tightening pressure gradient between the Colombian low, a front moving through the central Atlantic, and building high pressure in the western Atlantic will support fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba tonight into early Wed, and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N66W to southeastern Cuba, and fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and locally rough seas are occurring east of the front. Farther west behind the front, fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring north of 29N between 70W and 78W. N swell associated with this low pressure system is producing rough seas north of 28N between 65W to the east coast of Florida, as confirmed by recent altimeter satellite data. Scattered convection is occurring along and to the east of the front. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high just SW of the Azores Islands. The ridge also extends deep into the tropical Atlantic where it supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft south of 25N and east of 55W. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over NW Africa is also supporting fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and 32W to the N of 24N, along with rough seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will progress to the south and east through Tue before dissipating midweek. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will occur ahead of the front north of 27N between 55W and 65W, with a brief period of gale force winds this morning north of 30N. Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will occur today north of 26.5N between 60W and 75W. A brief period of gale force winds will be possible this morning north of 30N between 65W and 70W. Rough seas in N to NW swell will propagate through much of the open waters early this week, with seas in excess of 8 ft occurring north of 26N by late morning, and north of 22N Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas are likely south of 25N today, with moderate to locally fresh trades occurring in this area through the rest of the week. Elsewhere, high pressure building over the eastern United States will support fresh to locally strong E to SE winds off the coast of Florida and through the Bahamas by early Tue. More widespread fresh to strong S winds will develop in this region Tue night ahead of a strong cold front entering the northwestern basin on Wed. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected surrounding the associated low pressure system as it moves eastward, and gale force winds will be possible behind the cold front late week. $$ ADAMS