000 AXNT20 KNHC 030532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Mar 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Liberia near 05N09W and continues to 00N17W. The ITCZ extends from 00N17W to 02S30W to 00N47W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is from 03S to 04N between 07W and 38W. GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging has built across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front that moved east of the basin just a couple of hours ago. The stationary portion of the front is weakening while it extends from the central basin NW to Matagorda Bay, Texas. Winds east of 87W are gentle to moderate from the NE to E while W of 87W winds are moderate to fresh from the E to SE. SOFAR buoys and altimeter data show moderate seas in the 3-7 ft range, highest over the NW Gulf. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will gradually dissipate through Mon morning. High pressure building over the eastern United States will support moderate N to NE winds over the central and eastern basin on Mon, with moderate to fresh E to SE winds occurring in the western Gulf. Strong S to SE winds and rough seas are expected to develop west of 90W Mon night as low pressure strengthens in the central United States, with strong winds extending farther east through the central and northeastern Gulf Tue into Wed. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will enter the northwestern basin on Tue and progress southeastward through midweek before exiting the basin by early Thu. Locally fresh to strong N to NW are expected offshore of Veracruz by early Wed in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the central United States by late week, supporting moderate E to SE winds across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... With the passage of a cold front N of the area, the pressure gradient over the basin has diminished. Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate trades basin-wide, except offshore Colombia where winds are fresh to strong from the northeast. Altimeter data show slight seas over the NW Caribbean and moderate seas to 6 ft elsewhere E of 80W. Scattered to isolated showers are ongoing over E Cuba, Hispaniola and the NE Caribbean, including portions of Puerto Rico. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and morning through midweek as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. A tightening pressure gradient between the Colombian low, a front moving through the central Atlantic, and building high pressure in the western Atlantic will support fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba Mon night into early Wed, and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern Caribbean this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N66W SW to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Fresh to strong NNE winds and rough seas to 10 ft follow the front and are affecting the offshore waters N of 28N. Recent scatterometer data also show S to SW fresh to strong winds N of 27N ahead of the front to 52W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front N of 25N to 58W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high just SW of the Azores Islands. The ridge also extends deep into the tropical Atlantic where it supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over NW Africa is also supporting fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and 32W to the N of 24N, along with rough seas in the 8-12 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will progress to the south and east through Tue before dissipating midweek. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will occur ahead of the front north of 27N between 50W and 65W, with a brief period of gale force winds Mon morning north of 30N. Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will occur on Mon north of 26.5N between 55W and 75W. A brief period of gale force winds will be possible Mon morning north of 30N between 65W and 70W. Rough seas in N to NW swell will propagate through much of the open waters early this week, with seas in excess of 8 ft occurring north of 25N through Mon morning, and north of 22N Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas are likely south of 25N on Mon, with moderate to locally fresh trades occurring in this area through the rest of the week. Elsewhere, high pressure building over the eastern United States will support fresh to locally strong E winds off the coast of Florida and through the Bahamas late Mon through Tue. More widespread fresh to strong S winds will develop in this region on Tue ahead of a strong cold front entering the northwestern basin on Wed. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough are expected surrounding the associated low pressure system as it moves eastward, and gale force winds will be possible behind the cold front late week. $$ Ramos