223 AXNT20 KNHC 022237 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Mar 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11.5W and continues to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is from the equator north to 07N between 04W and 23WW. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are about the ITCZ, from 03N south to the equator, between 25W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the basin from SW Florida just north of Naples to 25.5N87W, then has become stationary to the central Texas coast across the eastern portions of Matagorda Bay. High pressure north of the front centered across the Ohio Valley extends southward into north central portions of the Gulf, producing anticyclonic winds. Fresh to strong N-NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas are north of the front. Low clouds and patchy dense fog along the coast of Mexico have finally burned off this afternoon. Elsewhere, south of the cold front, light to gentle E to SE winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. A surface trough is across the SE Gulf, just south of the cold front, along 24.5N, and is acting as the focus for scattered showers between the trough and NW Cuba coastal waters. For the forecast, the cold front across the basin will exit the southeastern waters tonight, while the portion extending into central Texas drifts northward. High pressure will build across the basin in the wake of this front allowing for freshening of E to SE winds across the area into Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the western half of the Gulf on Mon night ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast Tue morning. This front will reach from southeastern Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico Tue night, from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning, and to just southeast of the basin by early Thu. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are expected near the Veracruz area late Tue night into Wed morning. High pressure will slide to the eastern Gulf by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Today, a relaxed pressure gradient prevails across the basin this afternoon, with weak high pressure across the southern Gulf of America, and subtropical Atlantic high pressure extending to 70W. This pressure pattern supports moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas across the eastern, central, and southwest Caribbean. Trades are strongest in the south-central Caribbean off the NW coast of Venezuela and NW Colombia, maintaining locally 7 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, N winds are light with 2-4 ft seas. Widely scattered light to moderate showers are moving across the NE Caribbean and passing south of Hispaniola. For the forecast, Fresh NE wind winds will pulse to strong each night offshore Colombia through Tue night, while strong trades are forecast to affect the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Moderate to fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon morning and continue through midweek before diminishing to mostly gentle speeds through Thu night. A cold front across the southeast Gulf of America will sink southward across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel tonight through Mon morning and dissipate. High pressure north of this boundary will build modestly southward and lead to the development of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba Mon night into Tue, and fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to enter the NW waters early Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed in the W Atlantic, from the central Bahamas to beyond 31N65W. This trough is located ahead of a vigorous middle to upper level trough moving into the western Atlantic, and is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection within 300 nm E of the surface trough. A cold front continues to move SE this afternoon, and extends from 31N73W to near Jupiter, Florida then continues W-SW across the peninsula. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas of 4-7 ft follow the front. The remaining W Atlantic waters west of 70W are experiencing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3-6 ft seas. East of 60W, a tightened pressure gradient imposed by strong Azores high pressure that extends to just N of Hispaniola is supporting fresh to locally strong trades across most of the Atlantic S of 25N. This has built seas to 7-10 ft across most of the central and eastern basin. North of 25N between 24W and 34W, strong to near-gale force N winds were detected by satellite scatterometer data this morning, accompanied by 10-14 ft seas. For the forecast, the W Atlantic cold front will reach from 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Mon morning. The northern portion of the front will continue to move eastward through Tue while the southern part will become stationary over the SE waters while weakening. Fresh to strong southwest winds are forecast ahead of the front north of 26N through late Mon. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will follow the front through late Mon. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop over the NW part of the area starting Tue afternoon and into early Wed in advance of a stronger cold front. These winds may reach to near-gale force on Wed while the front emerges off the southeastern United States coast. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front and east of northern and central Florida Wed night into Thu. The front is forecast to move across the western and central waters Thu and Thu night, with fresh to strong winds on either side of it north and northeast of the Bahamas. Gale conditions are possible N of 29N behind the front on Thu. Rough to very rough seas in W to NW swell are expected in the wake of the front. $$ Stripling