013 AXNT20 KNHC 020544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Mar 2 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11.5W and continues to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and within 100 nm of both of these features. GULF OF AMERICA... Satellite imagery this evening continues to show lingering low clouds and fog near the coast of Mexico from just S of Tampico to just N of Veracruz, leading to areas of reduced visibility. Mariners are urged to exercise caution in reduced visibilities. Elsewhere across the Gulf, scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity of a surface trough in the W Gulf. A 1016 mb high is also analyzed near 26N84W. The weak pressure gradient across the Gulf is maintaining light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure is centered over the far eastern Gulf near 26N84W allowing for light to gentle variable winds to prevail across the basin along with slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to push southward across the NE Gulf waters tonight and exit the southeastern waters Sun evening. Stronger higher pressure will build across the region in the wake of this front allowing for freshening of the winds across the basin into Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the western half on Mon night ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast Tue afternoon. This front will reach from southeastern Louisiana to the SW Gulf late Tue night, from northern Florida to near 24N91W and to the central Bay of Campeche Wed, and to just southeast of the basin by early Thu. High pressure will slide to the eastern Gulf by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of high pressure over the E Gulf of America and high pressure near the Azores provides for continued ridging across the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient currently sustains moderate to fresh trades in the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean, with 3-6 ft seas. The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong E to NE winds off the coast of Colombia, with localized seas to 7 ft. Light wind and 1-4 ft seas prevail in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse each night offshore Colombia through Wed night while strong trades are forecast to affect the Gulf of Venezuela through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon morning and continue through midweek before diminishing mostly gentle speeds through Thu night. Surface ridging across the western portion of the basin will lead to the development of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba Sun night into Mon night, and fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in the SW North Atlantic, one from 30N67W to 24N76W, and the other from 30N59W to 21N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the vicinity of these features. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters west of 60W, with 3-5 ft seas. Ridging from high pressure centered near the Azores dominates remaining waters east of 60W, with fresh to strong trades indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas are 4-8 ft, with a few peaks to 9 ft analyzed in the ongoing strong winds. For the forecast, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, and move E across the offshore waters through Tue, before weakening. Fresh to strong southwest winds are forecast ahead of the front north of 26N. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front. A tight gradient between the high pressure and the front will lead to fresh northeast to east winds south of 30N west of the front from Mon night through Tue night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop over the NW part of the area starting Tue afternoon and into early Wed in advance of a stronger cold front. These winds may reach to near-gale force on Wed as they shift to mostly south to southwest in direction while the front emerges off the southeastern United States coast. Fresh to strong winds west are expected west of the front east of northern and central Florida Wed night. The front is forecast to move across the western and central waters Thu and Thu night, with fresh to strong winds on either side of it north and northeast of the Bahamas. $$ Adams