000
AXNT20 KNHC 010943
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted S to 06N between 25W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends across the Florida Straits along 23N and
E of 82W. No significant convection is noted with this boundary. 
A high pressure of 1018 mb has settled into the NE Gulf behind 
the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the W Gulf, 
paralleling the coasts of Texas and Mexico roughly 100 nm 
offshore. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high 
pressure pattern that supports gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds prevail across 
the basin, with slight to moderate seas. A new cold front is 
forecast to sink across the NE Gulf waters tonight and exit the SE
basin Sun morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds will follow this 
front through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop 
over the western half of the Gulf Tue morning ahead of the next 
cold front forecast to come off the Texas coast late Tue. The cold
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz offshore 
waters Wed morning and exit the basin Wed night into Thu. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Atlantic to the waters N of 
Puerto Rico. This pressure pattern is forcing fresh to strong NE-E
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, as confirmed by  
satellite scatterometer data. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. 
The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are 
prevalent across the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean. 
Elsewhere across NW portions, moderate or weaker N to NE winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse each night offshore 
Colombia through Tue night while strong trades are forecast to 
affect the Gulf of Venezuela through the weekend. Moderate to 
fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds Mon morning and continue through Tue 
night. The tail end of a cold front will move across Cuba on Sun 
night. High pressure building in the wake of the front will lead 
to the development of moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of 
Cuba Sun night into Mon night, and fresh to strong E to SE winds 
in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 23N80W. A pre-frontal trough
is analyzed from 31N59W to 19N66W. Otherwise, the Atlantic is 
dominated by ridging stemming from a 1038 mb high centered near 
46N26W. The pressure gradient between the ridge extending SW from
this high and lower pressure in the tropics results in fresh to 
strong NE to E winds across much of the Atlantic S of 31N and E of
64W. Moderate or weaker E to SE winds prevail W of 64W. Moderate 
seas prevail across the Atlantic as well, with the exception of 
areas S of 25N and E of 56W, where seas are 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front currently in the W atlantic will
continue moving E while weakening. A second cold front will move 
off the NE Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to the 
central Bahamas Sun morning, from 31N60W to the Windward Passage 
Mon morning, and from 31N50W to 26N60W with tail stalling to the 
central Bahamas Tue morning. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast
ahead of the front N of 29N Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds 
following the front will affect the Bahamas offshore waters Mon 
night through Tue night as strong high pressure builds N of the 
stationary portion of the front. Looking ahead, fresh to strong 
southerly winds will develop across the NE Florida offshore waters
Tue night into Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to 
enter the NW offshore waters Wed night. 

$$
ERA