218 
AXNT20 KNHC 272344
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Feb 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 05N between 20W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving through the northwestern Gulf, extending
from 30N88W southwestward to 26N97W. Isolated showers are noted
near the front in the north-central basin, otherwise, no deep
convection is occurring with this front. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 1 to 4 ft prevail across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE of 
the Gulf tonight, followed by mostly moderate northerly winds. 
These winds will diminish Fri afternoon as high pressure builds 
across the area. Southeast winds are expected to increase slightly
over the central and western Gulf starting Sun. Another weak cold
front is expected to move across the eastern and central Gulf 
waters Sun and Sun night, followed by stronger high pressure that 
will build southward across the eastern central Gulf into early 
next week. Fresh east to southeast winds will develop Sun night 
over the central and western Gulf. A tight gradient between the 
high pressure and a frontal system over western Texas will lead 
to fresh northeast to east winds over the southeastern Gulf Mon 
and Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly flow develops over most 
of the basin Tue as the gradient tightens between the stronger 
high pressure and a frontal system over western Texas.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge located north of Bermuda extends southward 
into the Caribbean Sea, and a 1009 mb low has been analyzed over 
northwestern Colombia. The pressure gradient between these 
features is supporting fresh to strong northeast winds in the 
south-central basin just offshore of Colombia and Venezuela, and 
locally rough seas. Moderate easterly trade winds and seas of 3 to
6 ft prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, with 
gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft in the 
northwestern basin. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia will 
strengthen toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally 
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern 
Caribbean through Fri as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. These 
winds will gradually expand in coverage through the upcoming 
weekend. Mostly fresh NE winds are forecast to pulse in the lee of
Cuba and in the Windward Passage Mon and Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N58W
to 24N67W, with a trough extending southwestward to northeastern
Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east
of the stationary front. The rest of the SW North Atlantic (west 
of 60W) is under the influence of a 1024 mb high pressure system 
centered north of Bermuda. Mainly moderate anticyclonic winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail in these waters.

The central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a 1031 mb high 
pressure system positioned near the Azores. This ridge forces 
moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the waters east of 
60W. Wave heights in the area described are 5-9 ft, with the 
highest seas occurring south of 20N between 25W and 55W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front and 
associated trough will dissipate by early Fri. The next cold front
will move offshore the southeastern United States tonight. This 
front will reach from near 31N73W to east-central Cuba early Fri 
and from near 31N66W to 27N70W and weakening to near the 
southeastern Bahamas Fri night, then stall dissipate Sat. Fresh to
strong winds are expected on either side of the front N of about 
27N Fri. High pressure will settle over the western part of the 
area Sat, with generally calm conditions over most of the area. 
Another cold front will move across the western and central 
forecast waters Sun and Sun night, reaching the eastern part of 
the area Mon through Tue night, where it will stall. Fresh to 
strong north to northeast winds are expected south of about 27N 
and west of the front starting Mon.

$$
ADAMS