000 AXNT20 KNHC 251806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Feb 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A Gale-Force Wind Warning is imminent, starting this afternoon. Expect gale-force S to SW winds, and rough seas, from 27N northward between 69W and 73W. A 1004 mb low pressure center is forecast to be close to 30N74W. The low pressure center is associated with a warm front/stationary front that extends northeastward, and with a cold front that reaches Honduras. These conditions are expected to continue until Wednesday morning or so. Expect elsewhere until Wednesday morning: strong to near gale- force S winds, and rough seas, from 23N northward between 62W and 75W. The current weather situation consists of: a stationary front that passes through 31N55W, to 30N70W, to a 1006 mb low pressure center that is close to 27N78W. A cold front extends from the 1006 mb low pressure center, across Cuba between 79W and 80W, to Honduras. Strong SE to S winds, and rough seas, are from 26N to 30N between 67W and 72W. Fresh to strong SE winds, and moderate seas from 6 feet to 7 feet, are elsewhere between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 21N76W 24N70W 24N59W 31N44W and Florida. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of Liberia close to 05N09W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 03N21W, crossing the Equator along 26W/27W, to 03S32W, 02S36W, to the coast of South America close to 02S along 44W/45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Broad surface low pressure and cyclonic wind flow cover the Gulf from 91W eastward. The frontal boundary and its low pressure center from 24 hours ago have moved to the east of Florida. Moderate seas of 6 feet to 7 feet are in the western half of the SE quadrant of the Gulf, from the Yucatan Channel southward. Moderate seas of 4 feet to 5 feet are elsewhere from 90W eastward. High pressure has built into the area, from Louisiana, to the Texas coastal waters, to Mexico near 23N99W. Gentle winds and slight seas are in this area. Weak high pressure will settle over the north-central waters through Wed night leading to tranquil marine conditions across the basin. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu morning and sweep across the basin through Fri. Fresh northerly winds in the wake of the front will become light to gentle northeast to east winds on Fri afternoon as high pressure settles over the north- central Gulf. The high center will shift to the NE Gulf Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through Cuba along 79W/80W, to Honduras. Moderate seas of 6 feet to 7 feet are in the Yucatan Channel and in parts of the SE quadrant of the Gulf of America. Slight seas are in the remainder of the area that is from 80W westward, and from 20N northward between SE Cuba and 80W. Fresh NW winds are from 83W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong E to SE winds are to the east of 18N67W 15N68W 14N70W 12N71W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds between the 18N67W 12N71W line and 76W. Gentle to moderate winds are between 76W and the cold front. Moderate seas of 6 feet to 7 feet are between 63W and 77W. Moderate seas of 4 feet to 5 feet are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/1200 UTC, are: 0.04 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift eastward through Wed allowing for trade winds to diminish slightly across the basin. A cold front over the NW Caribbean will stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia will diminish today, then strengthen again toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of the week, as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will briefly become fresh to locally strong over the southeast portion tonight. These winds will gradually expand in coverage through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale-Force Wind Warning starts this afternoon. Expect gale-force S to SW winds, and rough seas, from 27N northward between 69W and 73W. A 1004 mb low pressure center is forecast to be close to 30N74W. The low pressure center is associated with a warm front/stationary front that extends northeastward, and with a cold front that reaches Honduras. These conditions are expected to continue until Wednesday morning or so. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/1200 UTC, are: 0.26 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A 1033 mb high pressure center is close to 33N24W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 60W eastward, and away from the 31N55W 30N70W stationary front. Moderate to rough seas are from 50W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 1300 nm to 1500 nm to the south of 31N15W 28N35W 25N42W 25N60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Broad low pressure over the NW Bahamas will track NE and intensify today before moving N of 31N by late tonight. The low will drag a cold front across the western part of the area. Strong to gale force southerly winds and active convection will prevail ahead of the front and low through Wed morning. By late Wed night, marine conditions will improve under a weak pressure pattern. The next cold front is expected to move offshore the southeastern United States Thu night, reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba early Fri and from near 31N65W to NW Haiti Fri night. Fresh to near gale winds are expected on either side of the front N of about 27N Fri. High pressure will settle over the western part of the area Sat and Sat night allowing for generally calm conditions over most of the area. $$ mt/ja