000 AXNT20 KNHC 242328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Feb 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Liberia near 05N09W to 02S27W to 02S34.5W. The ITCZ then continues from 02S34.5W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 05.5N between 09W and 21.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 01N between 27W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep-layered upper level low is moving southeastward across the NW Gulf this evening, and supports an elongated low pressure area and front. A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 28.5N89.5W, with a trough extending to a second 1010 mb low near 26.5N86W. A warm front extends from the second low eastward across central Florida, while a cold front extends from this low to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Small bands and clusters of moderate to strong convection extend from western Cuba northward to the Big Bend region, all to the east of 86W. Fresh to strong S to E winds are occurring across the eastern Gulf, to the E and NE of the low, with seas in the 4-8 ft range. To the west of the lows and front fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail within 180 nm behind the front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft, except 2 to 4 ft across the near shore coastal waters. For the forecast, the low pressure will move eastward across south-central Florida tonight, with the trailing cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean this evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected around the low pressure through this evening, while moderate to fresh NW winds are expected behind the front. Weak high pressure will settle over the north- central waters Tue through Wed night leading to tranquil marine conditions across the basin. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu morning and sweep across the basin through Fri. Fresh northerly winds in the wake of the front will become light to gentle northeast to east winds on Fri afternoon as high pressure settles over the north- central Gulf. The high center will then shift to the NE Gulf Sat sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure east of Bermuda extends a ridge W-SW to the Florida east coast this evening. This pattern is yielding fresh to strong trade winds, and seas of 6-8 ft over the Caribbean east of 79W. Light to moderate S to SW winds are occurring over northwest portions, ahead of the Gulf front, with seas of 3-4 ft. Over the southwestern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. A NNE-to-SSW oriented surface trough is just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate showers occurring along it. High pressure across the west central Atlantic will shift eastward through Wed, allowing for trade winds to diminish some across the basin. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this evening, then reach from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, with fresh NW winds behind it. The front will stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia will diminish gradually through Tue, then strengthen again toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of the week, as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will briefly become fresh to locally strong over the southeast portion Tue night, as low pressure deepens over the western Atlantic. These wind will gradually expand westward in coverage south of 14N through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N76W to Cape Canaveral, Florida, where it transitions to a warm front. A narrow ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to the coast of Florida south of the front, while a dissipating stationary front lingers from 25N60W to the central Bahamas. Favorable upper level conditions prevail east of the Gulf of America upper level low, and is supporting scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection across the waters between Florida and 63W to the north of 24N. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 25N to 28N from 65W westward. A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N47W to 25N60W to the central Bahamas, with modest ridging on either side. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are within 180 nm to the north of this dissipating front, where seas are 6-7 ft. SE of this front fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic south of 24N, where seas are 7-9 ft in mixed trade wind and NW swell. Fair skies prevail. To the north of 24N winds are generally light to moderate E to SE, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in fading NW swell. A gale warning is in effect for areas NE of the Bahamas to 62W Tue through Tue night. Elongated low pressure across the Gulf of America will move across south-central Florida and the NW Bahamas tonight, then track NE and intensify Tue, moving N of 31N by late Tue night. The low will drag a cold front across the western part of the area and into the SE Bahamas. Strong to gale force southerly winds and active convection will prevail ahead of the front and low Tue through Wed morning. By late Wed night, marine conditions will begin to improve as weak high pressure builds southward into the area, behind the quickly weakening cold front. The next cold front is expected to move offshore of the southeastern United States Thu night, reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba early Fri and from near 31N65W to NW Haiti Fri night. Fresh to near gale winds are expected on either side of the front N of about 27N on Fri. High pressure will settle over the western part of the area Sat and Sat night allowing for generally calm conditions over most of the area. $$ Stripling