000
AXNT20 KNHC 240504
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Feb 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and continues SW to near 01N34W. The ITCZ extends from 01N34W to 
01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator
to 02N between 05W and 31W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1015 mb low pressure is centered offshore SW Louisiana near 
28N90W with a cold front extending from the low to the central 
Bay of Campeche. A warm front also extends from the low center to 
near 28N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the 
vicinity of the low, particularly in the SE quadrant. Abundant low
level clouds, with patches of light rain, are in the wake of the 
cold front. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds 
in the SE quadrant of the low and N of the warm front. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds are noted behind front. Seas are generally 4
to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NW Gulf and coastal waters of W
Florida.

For the forecast, the low pressure will move more quickly E to SE
across south-central Florida Mon night, with the trailing cold 
front moving into the NW Caribbean Mon evening. Fresh to strong 
winds are expected around the low pressure through Mon, while 
moderate to fresh NW winds are expected behind the front. Weak 
high pressure will settle over the north-central waters Tue 
through Wed night leading to tranquil marine conditions across the
basin. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu morning and 
sweep across the basin through Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and
moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the central and
eastern parts of the basin. Similar wind speeds are noted across
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 9 ft in the south-central 
Caribbean. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade 
wind flow are moving across the area producing isolated to 
scattered passing showers. Low level clouds, with possible showers
are seen over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel and
western Cuba. 

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic north
of the area will shift eastward through Mon, resulting in a modest
decrease in trade winds across the basin. A cold front will enter
the NW Caribbean Mon evening, then reach from western Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras Tue morning with fresh NW winds behind it. The 
front will stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras
by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia will diminish
gradually through Tue, then strengthen again toward the end of 
the week. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail 
elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle 
of the week, as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will briefly
become fresh to locally strong across SE portions Tue night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends across a wide portion of
the basin, stretching from near 31N43W to 27N55W to near the SE
Bahamas. Scattered showers are possible near the frontal boundary.  
High pressure of 1025 mb is N of the front located near 32N60W.  
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the wake of the
front to about 26N and W of 55W based on scatterometer data. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft within these winds. East of the front, high pressure
of 1031 mb centered near the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder
of the open waters. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and 
seas of 6 to 9 ft are observed from 13N to 24N between the W coast
of Africa and 40W. Similar wind speeds are between the Canary 
Islands. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are blowing 
near the coast of Morocco mainly from 30N to 31.5N and E of 11W 
where seas are in the 9 to 12 ft range. This include the marine 
zone of Agadir in the Meteo-France forecast area. These winds are
the result of the pressure gradient between the high pressure
situated near the Madeira Islands and a surface trough over 
Morocco. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the 
waters. For seas, large NW swell continue to support significant 
wave heights of 8 to 11 ft across much of the waters north of 20N 
and east of 60W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted across the remainder 
of the tropical Atlantic. 

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate 
tonight. Rough seas N of the front will continue to subside across
the waters W of 55W through Mon. Elongated low pressure across 
the Gulf of America will move across south-central Florida and the
NW Bahamas Mon night, then track NE and intensify Tue, moving to 
the N of 31N by late Tue night. The low will drag a trailing cold 
front across the western part of the area. Strong to near gale- 
force southerly winds and very active thunderstorms will prevail 
ahead of the front and low Tue through Wed morning. By late Wed 
night, marine conditions will improve under a weak pressure 
pattern. The next cold front is expected to move offshore the SE 
United States Thu night.

$$
GR