000 AXNT20 KNHC 220522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Feb 22 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia at night through Sat night. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft within these winds. Strong winds and rough seas are expected during the daytime hours. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 01N50W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from the Equator to 04N between 10W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 03N between 15W and 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is analyzed over the western portion of the basin and extends from 27N96W to the central Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NW to N winds between the trough axis and the coast of Mexico, with the strongest winds of 30 kt offshore Veracruz. Seas are 9 to 11 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel where fresh NE winds prevail. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers, is covering most of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, near gale force winds off Veracruz will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon. A trough over the west-central and SW Gulf will remain nearly stationary through tonight. Low pressure will form along the trough today near the Lower Texas coast. The low will track NE through early Sun night, then quickly E to SE toward southern Florida on Mon. A cold front will trail from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to strong winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high pressure will settle over the central Gulf Tue through Wed night in its wake with tranquil marine conditions across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A frontal boundary is analyzed over the NW Caribbean and runs from central Cuba to near Chetumal, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail N of the front, with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Strong NE to E winds are off the coast of Colombia, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong trades are noted over the remainder of the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela while moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force through Sat night. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate by this weekend. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage through early Sun. Otherwise, moderate seas in east swell east of the Lesser Antilles will subside today, with little change in seas there through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N54W and continues SW to the SE Bahamas where it becomes a stationary front across central Cuba and the NW Caribbean. A band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the wake of the front to about 26N and W of 65W. Similar wind speeds from the NE and E are blowing across the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere N of the front. A swell event also follows this system, with seas of 10 to 15 ft N of the front and E of 70W with the highest seas near 31N per altimeter data. Another cold front crosses midway between the Madeira and the Canary Islands and extends to near 28N26W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1028 mb center near 34N25W. Its associated ridge extends SW to near 26N47W. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is noted along the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly from 15N to 24N between 20W and 40W. Rough seas, in NW swell, dominate most of the waters E of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 24N60W tonight before dissipating. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to fresh to strong northeast winds south of 25N and west of the front, including the Straits of Florida into Sat night. Conditions improve Sun into early Mon. Broad low pressure from the Gulf will quickly approach South Florida Mon, and track NE to north 31N by late Tue night with a trailing cold front across the western part of the area. By late Wed night, fresh to strong winds will be confined to the NE part of the area. $$ GR