446 AXNT20 KNHC 201808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Feb 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Straits along the NW coast of Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula and into the SE Bay of Campeche. The front will continue to move southeastward across the remainder of the basin through tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect through this evening for offshore Veracruz. Near-gale to gale force winds persist across much of the Gulf W of 94W. These winds will continue to produce very rough to high seas, peaking to around 20 ft today off Veracruz, along with rough to very rough seas across much of the Gulf N and W of a line extending from Tampa Bay to near 18N94W. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell of 12 to 16 ft covers the subtropical Atlantic north of 24N between 25W and 55W today. This swell will shift S and E to cover the waters north of 19N between 15W and 40W on Fri before gradually subsiding. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N17W to 03S30W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing from 06S to 06N between the coasts of west Africa and Brazil. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning and associated large swell in the Gulf of America. A cold front extends from the Florida Straits along the NW coast of Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula and into the SE Bay of Campeche. A Gale Warning remains in effect today through this evening offshore Veracruz, with rough to very rough seas already peaking to around 20 ft offshore Veracruz. Scattered moderate convection is active along the tail end of the front in the SE Bay of Campeche, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere along the front. Aside from the areas mentioned in the Special Features section, strong to near-gale force N winds follow the front elsewhere across the Gulf between 87W and 94W, with fresh to strong N winds across the remainder of the Gulf E of 87W. Areas S and E of a line extending from Tampa Bay to near 18N94W are seeing slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to the just northwest of western Cuba and to near the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to the eastern Bay of Campeche will push into the northwestern Caribbean Fri. A Gale Warning remains in effect through this evening for waters off Veracruz. These winds will continue to produce rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 18 ft today off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend. A trough is expected to develop from the frontal remnants over the west-central and SW Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the waters north of 22N and west of about 89W Fri through Sat night. Low pressure may develop along the trough on Sat near southern Texas and meander through Sun night while weakening. Weak high pressure will settle in over the NW Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad subtropical ridge that has persisted north of the region for the last several days is weakening and shifting eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of America. This is allowing trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean to diminish a bit, although strong NE to E winds and rough seas persist near the coast of northeast Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas persist elsewhere across the central and E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue over most sections of the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through tonight, then return Sat night through Mon night. A cold front will reach from west-central Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight, reach from the Windward Passage to waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica and to near 18N85W late Fri and stall. The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate through the weekend. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri evening through early Sun. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat, subsiding afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell. A cold front extends from 31N73W SW to the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong S winds and 5-8 ft seas are evident ahead of the front to 62W and north of 26N. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds also follow the front with seas of 5-8 ft as well. S of 27N and ahead of the front, winds are from the SE to S and seas are moderate to rough in E swell. A broad ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high near the Canary Islands and a 1024 mb high E of Bermuda covers the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters north of 20N are gentle to moderate, except for areas north of 20N and E of 25W where NE winds are fresh to strong along with seas to 12 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, trades are mainly fresh and seas are 7-10 ft primarily in NW swell. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N72W southwestward to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida this morning. Fresh to strong winds are presently north of 26N ahead and behind the front. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba early Fri, from near 31N57W to 26N64W to the Windward Passage early Fri evening and from near 28N55W to Haiti early Sat. The front will begin to slow down and weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 24N60W, continuing as a stationary front to Haiti Sat night and dissipating soon afterward. Its remnant trough will drift back west toward the southeastern Bahamas through Mon while dissipating. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to fresh to strong northeast winds south of 25N, including the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank, Fri night into Sat night. Conditions begin to improve beginning Sun morning and into early next week as a rather weak cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas. $$ Adams