954 AXNT20 KNHC 191746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Feb 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from a 1008 mb low centered near 29N89N southwestward to the NE Mexican coast near 23N98W. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through Thu night. Gale-force north winds are occurring north and west of the front offshore of Tampico and will continue through tonight, and will occur offshore Veracruz tonight through Thu night. These winds will produce rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 18 ft tonight off Tampico. Both winds and seas will gradually diminish during the weekend. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 10 to 15 ft across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of 10N and east of 35W. This swell will subside gradually today. A new set of large reinforcing NW swell will bring another round of 12 to 18 ft seas north of 20N between 20W and 55W, then subside to 12 to 15 ft as the swell moves east of 35W Fri. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then continues to the southwest toward 01N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01N19W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is active from 00N to 13N between the coast of Africa and 33W, as well as from 05S to 05N between 27W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in the Gulf of America. A strong arctic cold front extends from a 1008 mb low centered near 29N89N southwestward to the NE Mexican coast near 23N98W. A warm front extends from the low to just north of Tampa Bay. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring in an area from 25N to 29N between 83W and 90W, which is producing a swath of near gale force winds with gusts to gale force in this region. Scattered showers are also occurring across much of the central and southern Gulf ahead of the front. Fresh to strong S winds are ahead of the front over the central Gulf along with 5-7 ft seas. The southern Gulf is seeing moderate to fresh S winds and seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, a strong arctic cold front extends from a 1008 mb low near 29N89W southwestward to 26N94W and to inland Mexico near 23N98W. The front will sweep across the rest of the basin through Thu night. A Gale Warning is in effect for the NW Gulf for near gale north winds with frequent gusts to gale force, and also for offshore of Tampico for gale-force north winds developing west of the front this morning into this evening, and off Veracruz tonight through Thu night. These winds will produce rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 17 ft tonight off Tampico and to around 19 ft off Veracruz tonight. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend. A trough will likely develop from the frontal remnants over the west-central and SW Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected through the period, becoming more confined to the waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri through Sat night. Low pressure may form off the trough on Sat near southern Texas and track NE near the rest of the Texas coast through Sun night. Conditions improve Sun and Sun night as the low weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Fresh to strong E winds are ongoing across much of the central and eastern Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5-8 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except light to gentle breezes and 2-5 ft seas over the northwest Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the far SW Caribbean near the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue over most sections of the central and eastern Caribbean through early Sun night, except for strong to near gale- force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through Thu night, then return Sat night through Sun night. A weakening frontal boundary will approach the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri, reach the Windward Passage Fri night into Sat before dissipating Sat night. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri night, subsiding afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell. A cold front extends from 31N46W to 27N59W where it stalls to 26N72W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic north of 20N is characterized by a broad surface ridge extending from the northeast Atlantic to a pair of 1022 mb high pressures, then westward toward the Bahamas. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes elsewhere north of 22N, west of 35W, and moderate NE winds east of 35W and north of 22N. Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are noted south of 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft outside of the areas of large swell described in the Special Features section. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N47W to 28N61W where it becomes stationary to 27N66W and to 25N73W. The front will begin to weaken as it shifts E of 55W this evening across the central subtropical Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters this afternoon ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to move into the NW forecast waters this afternoon. This front will reach from near 31N77W to Vero Beach, Florida tonight, from near 31N75W to South Florida early Thu, from near 31N63W to 26N70W and to eastern Cuba early Fri, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Fri night, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 22N64W to the Windward Passage Sat night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this front north of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight gradient will bring fresh to strong northeast winds to the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank primarily south of 25N Fri night into Sat night. Conditions diminish Sun and Sun night as an expected dry cold front moves across the NW part of the area. $$ Adams