000 AXNT20 KNHC 191100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Feb 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 29N92W to southern Texas near 26N97W. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through Thu night. Near gale north winds with frequent gusts to gale force are ongoing over the NW Gulf this morning. Gale-force north winds will also develop west of the front offshore of Tampico this morning continuing through tonight, and off Veracruz tonight through Thu night. These winds will produce rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 18 ft tonight off Tampico. Both winds and seas will gradually diminish during the weekend. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 12 to 15 ft across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of 11N and east of 38W. This swell will subside gradually today. A new set of large reinforcing NW swell will bring another round of 12 to 18 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and 55W, then subside to 12 to 15 ft as the swell moves east of 35W Fri. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then continues to the southwest toward 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 02S30W, then to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03S to 02N between 07W and 24W, and from 05S to 03N between 25W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in the Gulf of America. A strong arctic cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 29N92W to southern Texas near 26N97W followed by strong to near gale force N winds and seas to 8 ft. An area of heavy showers are ahead of the front over the NE basin from SE Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. Scattered showers are also ongoing over the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the front over the north-central Gulf along with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to locally moderate. For the forecast, the cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through Thu night. A Gale Warning is effect for the NW Gulf for near gale north winds with frequent gusts to gale force, and also for offshore of Tampico for gale-force north winds developing west of the front this morning through tonight and off Veracruz tonight through Thu night. These winds will produce rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 18 ft tonight off Tampico. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend. A trough will likely develop from the frontal remnants over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected through the period, becoming more confined to the waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri through Sat night. Conditions improve Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, dense fog is being reported over the NW Gulf offshore waters ahead of the front with visibility less than 2 nm, expected to continue through the next couple of hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Fresh to strong winds are ongoing off Colombia with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean south of Cuba. No significant showers or thunderstorms are observed. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue over most sections of the central and eastern Caribbean through early Sun night, except for strong to near gale- force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through Thu night, then return Sat night through Sun night. A weakening frontal boundary will approach the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri, reach the Windward Passage Fri night into Sat before dissipating Sat night. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri night, subsiding afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell. A cold front extends from 31N49W to 27N65W where it stalls to 25N72W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic north of 20N is characterized by a broad surface ridge extending from the northeast Atlantic to a pair of 1022 mb high pressures, then westward toward the Bahamas. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes elsewhere north of 22N, west of 35W, and moderate NE winds east of 35W and north of 22N. Fresh NE to E trade winds are noted south of 22N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft outside of the areas of large swell described in the Special Features section. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move to the central subtropical Atlantic waters today. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the northeast Florida offshore waters this afternoon ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast this evening. This front will reach from near 31N77W to Vero Beach, Florida tonight, from near 31N63W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thu night, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Fri night and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 22N64W to the Windward Passage Sat night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this front north of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight gradient will bring fresh to strong NE winds to the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank primarily south of 25N Fri night into Sat night. Conditions diminish Sun and Sun night as another cold front moves across the northwest part of the area. $$ Ramos