000 AXNT20 KNHC 171818 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Feb 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT... Large, long-period NW swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 12 to 21 ft across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of a line from 31N52W to 20N44W to 31N20W. This swell will subside very gradually while shifting eastward toward the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Tuesday. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs southwestward to 03N16W. An ITCZ continues from 03N16W across 00S30W to near Sao Luis, Brazil at 02S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near the monsoon trough from 00S to 05N between 10W to 16W, and up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Keys to north of the Yucatan Peninsula at 22N88W, then continues as a stationary front to the Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm north of this frontal boundary. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are lingering offshore from Veracruz, Mexico. Elsewhere north of the frontal boundary, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail. For south of the frontal boundary including the eastern Bay of Campeche, Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits, gentle NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to weaken while moving southeast of the Gulf tonight. The stationary front should begin to dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will prevail behind the front across the Gulf this morning, except for strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz. Another cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf by midweek and progress southeastward, leading to fresh to near gale-force winds across northern and western Gulf. Gale-force winds will be possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed, and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night into Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from 1025 mb high at 29N51W to the northwestern Caribbean Basin. These features are prolonging a trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering widely scattered showers just east of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the eastern basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are dominating the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the central, eastern and portions of the southwestern basin this week, with locally strong to near gale- force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail over the northwestern basin. Otherwise, rough seas in E swell will prevail the entire week east of the Lesser Antilles. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section at the beginning about a Significant NW Swell. A cold front extends southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across 31N69W to beyond the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are happening near and up to 90nm south of the frontal boundary. Another cold front curves southwestward from near Madeira across 31N22W to near 23N41W, then continues westward as a shear line to 20N60W. Patchy showers are evident up to 60 nm along either side of this boundary. Convergent trades are causing scattered showers east of the Windward Islands from 13N to 17N between 50W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong S to SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are present near and up to 100 nm east of the first cold front. Fresh to strong W and NW winds are seen north of 27N between the second cold front and 37W. For the remaining area north of 24N between 35W and the Florida coast/Bahamas that outside the significant NW swell, gentle to moderate S to SW to NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in moderate to large mixed swells exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in large northerly swell dominate. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will reach from near 31N64W to 26N70W tonight, from near 31N58W to 29N65W early Tue, then become stationary and weaken from 29N55W to 29N65W early Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front north of 29N will diminish this evening as the front moves eastward. Rough seas over much of the waters east of 65W will prevail through tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over the central and northeast Florida offshore waters early Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast Wed afternoon. This front will reach from near 31N75W to Port St Lucie, Florida Wed night, from near 31N63W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba Thu night, and from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this second front north of about 27N through Fri. $$ Chan