707 AXNT20 KNHC 162259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Feb 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2225 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend Area to near Tampico, Mexico. The strong ridge over the central United States is forcing strong to gale-force NW winds off Veracruz, along with rough seas to 10 ft through Monday morning. Both winds and seas should quickly subside Monday afternoon and evening. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large NW to N swell produced by gale to strong-gale winds in the north Atlantic is causing 12 to 20 ft seas across the central Atlantic, north of 24N between 30W and 55W. Winds in this area range from moderate to strong. Seas will rise further to between 12 and 21 ft and spread to near 21N by Monday noon. As the swell decays Monday night and Tuesday, seas should gradually subside and shift eastward Monday night and Tuesday. For both events above, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 03N16W. An ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 00N30W and to 03N44W. A surface trough is analyzed along 47W, south of 06N. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 07N and west of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section on a Gale Warning. A cold front extends southwestward from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 90 nm east of the front, especially in the NE Gulf. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident behind the cold front at the northwestern Gulf, including waters off Tampico. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds with 2 to 5 ft seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift across the remainder of the basin, shifting SE of the area Mon. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail behind the front this evening, mainly west of 90W. Winds will briefly reach gale force offshore of Veracruz early this evening. Winds will diminish from north to south tonight into Mon as the cold front exits the basin and high pressure builds over the southeastern United States. Another cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf by midweek and progress southeastward, leading to fresh to strong winds across northern and western portions of the basin. Gale force winds will be possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed, and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Pockets of low-level moisture continue move westward across the Caribbean waters sustaining light, isolated showers. A 1025 mb high pressure system located east of Bermuda forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the central and eastern portions of the basin this week, with locally strong winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia. Moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail over the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on a Significant Swell Event in the north-central Atlantic. The cold front approaching the Atlantic waters of Florida is supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms north of 28N and west of 77W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge located east of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the aforementioned frontal boundary support fresh to near gale-force southerly winds north of 27N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate to rough seas are prevalent west of 60W. Farther east, a cold front curves southwestward from the NE Atlantic across 31N30W to 25N56W, then continues northwestward as a stationary front to 27N63W. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that forces moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas south of 20N. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are evident off the coast of Morocco due to a tight pressure gradient between the ridge near Madeira and lower pressures in NW Africa. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a cold front will move into the NW waters this evening. Fresh to strong NW to W winds will prevail on either side of the front north of 30N tonight. Winds will diminish on Mon as the front moves eastward and eventually dissipates. Rough seas over much of the waters E of 70W will gradually subside early this week. Fresh trade winds will prevail south of 23N through the middle of the week. $$ Delgado