000 AXNT20 KNHC 160609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Feb 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect for the next 6 hours or so: gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, in the coastal waters of Colombia between 74.5W and 75.5W. Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 18N southward between 67W and 77W. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are from 11N to 18N between 67W and 73W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect the wind speeds to be 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE to E swell, in the remainder of the areas that are from 10N to 18N between 62W and 81W. An exception is for slight seas to be in the coastal waters of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea, and for the countries of Central America. ...GULF OF AMERICA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front on Sunday afternoon will be along 30N84W 23N96W 18N94W. Expect: gale-force N to NW winds, and moderate to rough seas, from 19N to 20N between 95.5W and 96W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect elsewhere: strong NE winds, and rough seas, from 26N to 28N between 95W and 97W. Strong to near gale-force NW winds, and moderate seas, will be in the remainder of the areas that are from 18N to 29N between 91W and 98W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT... Expect for the next 24 hours or so: the wind speeds will be 20 knots or less, with rough seas to very rough seas in N swell, from 19N to 31N between 35W and 76W. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Liberia and the Ivory Coast, to the Equator along 18W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 18W, to 02S30W, and 01S40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 04N between 14W and 18W, and from 06N southward between 36W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-Force Wind Warning, that is forecast from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A cold front/stationary front is in the coastal plains/in the coastal waters of Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate, are to the northwest of the line that runs from 23N98W at the coast of Mexico to the Florida Big Bend. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to strong southerly winds, and moderate seas, are in the north central sections. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the area. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will occur in the north-central and northeastern Gulf overnight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf early on Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will occur behind the front on Sun, mainly west of 90W. Winds will briefly reach gale force offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon. Winds will diminish from north to south on Mon as the cold front exits the basin and high pressure builds over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week and progress southeastward, leading to fresh to strong winds across northern and western portions of the basin. Gale force winds will be possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed, and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night and Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of Colombia for the next 6 hours or so. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, are: 0.07 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Gale force winds and rough seas up to 11 ft will occur offshore of Colombia tonight into early Sun. Fresh trade winds and rough seas are expected across central and eastern portions of the Caribbean into Mon morning as a strong pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure in the central and western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the central Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras, through the Atlantic Passages and in the Windward Passage through Sun morning. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the basin next week, with locally strong winds mainly confined to offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Significant Swell Event for the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 31N39W 28N50W 28N56W. The front is stationary from 28N56W, to 28N71W. The front becomes warm at 28N71W, and it continues beyond 31N78W. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: the wind speeds will be 20 knots or less, with rough seas to very rough seas in N swell, from 19N to 31N between 35W and 76W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is close to 26N30W. Broad surface anticyclonic covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 40W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 25N70W 24N59W 23N50W 20N41W 23N20W, to the coast of South America that is along 60W, to 04N51W 01N46W 03N39W 03N30W 07N24W, to the coast of Africa close to 07N17W. Fresh anticyclonic winds are from 27N to 31N between 47W and 72W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from the 31N39W 28N56W cold front northward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas to rough seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong S winds and rough seas will occur off the coast of Florida late tonight through Sun as low pressure strengthens over the southeastern United States. Strong winds will expand farther east on Sun, impacting areas north of 28.5N and west of 60W through Sun night. A cold front associated with the low will move into the waters Sun night, leading to fresh to locally strong NW to W winds behind the front north of 28N and west of 70W. Winds will diminish on Mon as the front moves eastward and eventually dissipates. Elsewhere, a cold front that extends from 31N39W to 28N58W, becoming a stationary front and extending to 28N71W, will dissipate on Sun. Rough seas associated with this front will expand farther south and east overnight, and produce rough seas across areas north of 23N and east of 68W by Sun morning. Locally very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will be possible north of 28N and east of 60W through Sun morning. Farther south, fresh trade winds and rough seas will prevail south of 23N through the middle of next week, with locally strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage. $$ mt/ea