000 AXNT20 KNHC 151807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Feb 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Persistent tight pressure gradient will cause fresh to strong NE to ENE winds off Barranquilla, Colombia to peak at near-gale to gale-force this evening through early Sun morning. Seas near the strongest winds are going to build and reach 9 to 11 ft. Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of America early late tonight, then progress southeastward across the Gulf through Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front are anticipated to reach near-gale to gale-force offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon and evening. Seas in the vicinity will peak at 10 to 12 ft. Both winds and seas will gradually diminish late Sun night through early Mon morning. For both Gale Warnings, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near Freetown, then runs southwestward to 02N17W. An ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 01S30W, then turns northwestward to 01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 05N between 10W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found near the ITCZ from 01S to 02N between 29W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning. A warm front reaches northwestward from central Florida to beyond the Alabama-Louisiana border. Scattered showers are seen near this feature over northern Florida and waters near the Florida Panhandler and Big Bend area. A surface ridge runs west- southwestward from southern Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident at the northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are seen at the western Bay of Campeche, and near the Florida Big Bend area. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail over the northwestern Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the area early on Sun. The front will shift across the Gulf, with strong N winds and rough seas expected behind the front west of 90W. Winds will diminish from north to south early next week as the cold front shifts southeast of the area and high pressure builds in its wake. Another cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf near midweek next week, with gale-force winds possible off Tampico on Wed, and Veracruz on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning. A surface ridge runs westward from a 1021 mb high near 25N35W to southern Florida/Florida Straits. This feature is supporting trade winds across the entire basin. Convergent trades are causing widely scattered showers from the Gulf of Honduras eastward to near and south of Jamaica, and over the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are found across the western basin west of 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will occur across the central and eastern basin through this weekend, with winds peaking to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela, through the Windward Passage, downwind of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, in the Gulf of Honduras, and through the Atlantic Passages. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh NE winds are expected in the western basin. Looking ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between lower pressure over northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the basin into early next week, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends west-southwestward from the central Atlantic across 31N50W to near 28N60W, then continues westward a stationary front to just north of the Bahamas, where it turns northwestward as a warm front to beyond central Florida. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm north of this boundary. Farther east, a surface trough reaches southwestward from 31N34W to 26N44W. Patchy showers are found up to 90 nm along either side of this trough. A weakening cold front curves westward from near the Canary Islands to 28N28W. Patchy light showers are noted up to 50 nm along either side of this front. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers from near Belem, Brazil to 04N between 44W and the coast of Amapa State, Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh NW to NE to SE winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas in large northerly swell dominate north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the south from 22N to 25N between 35W and the Florida coast, gentle winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swell exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast, the cold front across the western and central Atlantic will stall today and dissipate by Sun. Long-period N swell producing rough seas will shift southeast, while slowly subsiding through early next week. Fresh trade winds and rough seas will prevail south of 23N through the weekend, with locally strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage. S winds will strengthen off the coast of Florida by early Sun ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States Sun night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift southeastward and weaken through Tue $$ Chan