459 AXNT20 KNHC 142325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Feb 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Widespread fresh E trade winds and rough seas will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning through Sun. Very rough seas will occur near and to the west of the highest winds. SW GOA Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Sat night and continue to move across the basin through early next week. Winds and seas will increase as the front passes, with winds speeds briefly reaching gale-force strength over the waters E of Veracruz, Mexico on Sun afternoon. These conditions will continue through Sun night. Rough seas will prevail in the area of strongest winds. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 02N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the special features section for information regarding a Gale Warning in effect for the SW GOA on Sun. A cold front extends from 26N82W to 26N85W, then becomes stationary from that point to 26N96W. North of the front, NE winds are moderate to fresh. South of the front, SE winds are gentle to moderate. In the NW and SW Gulf of America, winds may peak near strong speeds. Seas are 8-10 ft in the SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, and 4-7 ft elsewhere in the Gulf of America. For the forecast, Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas are N of the front forecast to lift northward through Sat. Then, fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern and north-central Gulf of America on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Sat into Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow this second front. Gale force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz on Sun in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the special features section for information regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia this morning. Strong to near-gale NE trades continue in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas in this area peak to 12 ft. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean, per the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 7-11 ft in the central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft in remaining waters. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force offshore Colombia each night and early morning through Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage through late Sat. Fresh to locally strong winds will occur across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, in the Gulf of Venezuela, in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and through the Atlantic Passages through Sun. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will occur in the northwestern Caribbean through this weekend. Looking ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the basin into early next week, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to 27N80W. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas to 8 ft follow the front. To the E, a stalled front is near the Canary Islands in the E Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds related to this front remain N of the area, but a large NW swell is spreading S of 31N bringing seas to 12 ft between 17W-44W. A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 27N57W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh trades prevail south of 25N, with moderate or weaker winds north of 25N. Seas are 7-11 ft prevail in the periphery of the high pressure, while seas of 4-7 ft prevail N of 23N and W of 46W. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected south of 25N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean through late Sat, with fresh to locally strong E winds expected into early next week. A long-period E swell will support rough seas in this region. The cold front in the W Atlantic will progress southeastward tonight followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas. The cold front will stall along 28N on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail north of this boundary. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will develop west of 70W off the coast of Florida on Sun ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida late on Sun. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue. $$ ERA