948 AXNT20 KNHC 140601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Feb 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect for the next 9 hours or so: gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 11N to 12N between 74.5W and 75.5W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 67W and 79W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 70W and 76W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. The wind speeds are forecast to be 20 knots or less, with rough seas in NE to E swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 11N to 19N between 62W and 81W, including in the Mona Passage, and in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are elsewhere from 11N northward 80W westward. Gentle winds are from 11N southward from 80W westward. Slight seas are from 80W westward. ...GULF OF AMERICA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front passes through NE Florida near 30N82W, to the central Gulf 26N90W, to 24N95W, to the coast of Mexico close to 18N96W. The front curves toward the northwest, beyond 20N98W, in interior Mexico. An outflow boundary is within 90 nm to the east and to the southeast of the cold front, from 26N to 30N. A surface trough is is from west central Guatemala to 23N93W in the Gulf. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. Expect for the next 6 hours or so: gale-force N winds, and rough seas, from 21N to 24N between 96W and 98W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect strong to near gale- force NE winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 21N to 28N between 90W and 98W. N to NE strong to near gale-force winds, and moderate to near rough seas, elsewhere from 19N to 29N between 88W and 97W. Expect also: winds less than 20 knots, and rough seas in NE swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 26N to 28N between 96W and 97W. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia that is close to 05N09W, to the Equator along 17W, to 01S18W. The ITCZ continues from 01S18W, to 02S21W, 01S28W 01S37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate/isolated strong is from 06N southward from 52W eastward. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering parts of the coastal waters of Mexico for the next 6 hours. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and slight to moderate seas, cover the remainder of the Gulf of America that is to the south of the cold front and from 90W eastward. A cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend to 24N95W to the western Bay of Campeche will progress toward the southeast overnight before stalling on Fri. Strong to near-gale force winds will occur to the north and west of this front overnight into Fri morning. Winds will briefly reach gale force offshore of Tampico late tonight and offshore of Veracruz early Fri morning. Very rough seas up to 15 ft will occur near the gale force winds. Winds and seas in this region will diminish from north to south Fri morning into the afternoon. The aforementioned front will lift northward Fri afternoon into Sat, supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds across much of the basin. Winds will increase to strong speeds across the northwestern and north central Gulf of America by Sat morning as a tightening pressure gradient develops between the front and strengthening low pressure in the central United States. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the northwestern basin late Sat into Sun, promoting fresh to strong N winds and rough seas west of 90W. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Veracruz on Sun behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of Colombia at this moment. The warning period ends on Friday morning. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are elsewhere from 11N northward 80W westward. Gentle winds are from 11N southward from 80W westward. Slight seas are from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 14/0000 UTC, are: 0.05 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Widespread fresh E trade winds and rough seas will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight into early Fri offshore of NW Colombia, with winds reaching near- gale force each night and early morning thereafter into Sun. Very rough seas will occur near and to the west of the highest winds. Pulsing strong winds are expected across the central Caribbean through this weekend, as well as in the Gulf of Venezuela, through the Atlantic Passages, in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will occur in the northwestern Caribbean through this weekend. Looking ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the basin into early next week, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N22W 27N30W 25N39W. Rough to very rough seas are from 27N northward between 30W and 35W. Rough seas also are from 20N northward to the east of the line 20N70W 31N50W. Rough seas are from 20N southward from 60W eastward. Moderate seas are from the 31N50W 20N70W line westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the Equator to 24N from 60W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1030 mb high pressure center is close to 30N59W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 40W westward. Fresh to strong E trade winds are expected south of 25N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean through Fri night, with fresh to pulsing strong E winds expected into early next week. A long-period E swell will support rough seas in this region, with locally very rough seas possible east of the Windward Islands through Sat. A strong cold front is expected to push off the coast of the southeastern United States Fri morning, leading to fresh to strong NE to E winds behind the front, generally north of 28.5N and west of 60W, on Fri. Rough seas will occur in tandem with these winds. The cold front will stall along 28N on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail north of this boundary. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will develop west of 70W off the coast of Florida on Sun ahead of a very strong storm system moving through the eastern United States. A cold front associated with this system will exit the SE United States late Sun and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue. $$ mt/ea