000 AXNT20 KNHC 131818 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 30N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force again tonight into early Friday morning near the coast of NW Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest winds. Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. This front will move SE today and reach from near Tampa Bay to 24N96W to just S of Veracruz by around midnight tonight, then begin to drift southeastward. Strong N to NE winds will prevail behind the front, with gales developing this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico through early Fri morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected along with the gales. Conditions will improve Fri as the stalled front weakens and eventually lifts north as a warm front. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 00N28W. The ITCZ then extends from 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 200 nm of both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the western Gulf of America. Please see the Special Feature Section above for information. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near-gale force N winds follow the cold front, along with seas building to 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE flow is present for the remainder of the basin ahead of the front, with 4 to 8 ft seas. A band of moderate to strong convection is along and immediately ahead of the front from 90W northeastward. For the forecast, a cold front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N96W to the Mexican coast along 20N. This front will move SE today and reach from near Tampa Bay to 24N96W to just S of Veracruz by around midnight tonight, then begin to drift southeastward. Strong N to NE winds will prevail behind the front, with gales developing this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico through early Fri morning. The front will stall Fri, then lift northward and out of the area Fri night into Sat. Another cold front will move offshore Texas Sat night, bringing another round of strong northerly winds. Gales are possible offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun afternoon and night behind this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Feature Section for details. The basin remains under the influence of an expansive 1029 mb high pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces fresh to strong E winds over much of the rest of the Caribbean. Seas across much of the Caribbean are 6 to 10 ft, locally up to 11 to 12 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 30N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early morning near the coast of NW Colombia through early Fri morning, and then to near gale force through the weekend. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder of southwestern and central Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Atlantic Passages, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W tonight through early Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Sun night through early Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends into the tropical Atlantic near 31N28W to 27N47W. Moderate northerly winds and sea of 8-11 ft are N of the front. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge located in the north- central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds south of 23N. These winds are supporting rough seas across much of the Atlantic south of 24N. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted off NE Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N through tonight, except for offshore NE Florida, where fresh to locally strong SW flow has developed ahead of a cold front. On Fri, a cold front will move into the NW waters, S of 30N and W of 65W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind it. The cold front will stall E to W along about 27N through the weekend. Another cold front will exit the SE U.S. late Sun and stretch from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon. $$ Adams