000 AXNT20 KNHC 130427 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 29N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force each night and early morning near the coast of NW Colombia through early Fri morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from southern Louisiana to southern Texas. It is forecast to stall and weaken from just N of Tampa Bay to Brownsville, Texas to just south of Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. Fresh to strong S winds are expected ahead of this front through tonight, strongest in the central Gulf. Strong to near gale force winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf Thu through Thu night, with brief gales offshore of Tampico late Thu afternoon and evening. seas are forecast to build to 13 ft with the strongest winds. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 00N29W. The ITCZ extends from 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm within both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the Special Feature Section for more information. A cold front extends from southern Louisiana to southern Texas, supporting a few showers near the boundary. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted behind the cold front, sustaining moderate seas. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of abroad subtropical ridge that force fresh to strong southerly winds over much of the eastern and central Gulf waters, especially east of 91W. Seas of 4-8 ft are found in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more details. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sun and move SE across the basin by late Mon afternoon. Strong to near gale force N winds will also follow this front in the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please, read the Special Feature Section for more details. Pockets of low-level moisture continue to move across the Caribbean Sea in the trade wind flow, supporting light, isolated showers. The basin remains under the influence of an expansive 1030 mb high pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces pulsing easterly winds to gale force near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds over much of the rest of the Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. However, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia, fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder of southwestern and central Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Atlantic Passages, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W tonight through early Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Sun night through early Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic waters near 31N34W and continues west-southwestward to 28N48W, followed by a stationary front to 29N58W. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. Moderate northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident behind the frontal boundary. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge located in the north- central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds south of 23N. These winds are supporting moderate to rough seas. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted off NE Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Thu afternoon, when a cold front will move into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of 70W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is expected to move eastward into the weekend, then stall and weaken E to W along 27N on Sat. The next front will exit the SE U.S. late Sun afternoon and reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon afternoon. $$ Delgado