406 AXNT20 KNHC 122321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 29N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force each night and early morning near the coast of NW Colombia through early Fri morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is approaching the coast of Texas. It will move SE and enter the NW Gulf tonight, then stall and weaken from just N of Tampa Bay to Brownsville, Texas to just south of Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. Fresh to strong S winds are expected ahead of this front through tonight, strongest in the central Gulf. Strong to near gale force winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf Thu through Thu night, with brief gales offshore of Tampico late Thu afternoon and evening. seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the Equator to 06N between 10W and 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the Special Feature Section for more information. The Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf waters while an old frontal boundary is stalled just inland across the Gulf coast states. A cold front is currently approaching the coast of Texas. The pressure gradient between these features is sustaining fresh to strong SE to S winds over much of the central Gulf with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front inland. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more details. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sun and move SE across the basin by late Mon afternoon. Strong to near gale force N winds will also follow this front in the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please, read the Special Feature Section for more details. The pressure gradient between a ridge N of area and the Colombian low continues to support pulsing winds to gale force near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 11 ft across the south-central Caribbean based on altimeter data, and 6 to 9 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas. Shallow moisture, embedded is the trade wind flow is observed across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers, are also noted. For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia, fresh NE to E trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder of southwestern and central Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W early Thu through Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Mon and Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N36W to 29N60W. Mainly moderate winds are noted on either side of the front with seas of 7 to 9 ft, highest in the wake of the front. Otherwise, the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are present across the southern periphery of the ridge, and mainly S of 22N. Seas area 8 to 11 ft within these winds based on a couple of altimeter passes. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere, with an area of mainly light winds along the ridge axis roughly N of 25N and E of 60W. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Thu afternoon, when a cold front will move into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of 70W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is expected to move eastward into the weekend, then stall and weaken E to W along 27N on Sat. The next front will exit the SE U.S. late Sun afternoon and reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon afternoon. $$ GR