000 AXNT20 KNHC 121829 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Feb 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure system currently centered near 35N56W and a 1009 mb low pressure system in northern Colombia is resulting in E to NE winds pulsing to gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia. This is expected to continue through early Fri morning. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these winds, peaking near 13-14 ft during the highest winds. Winds and seas will diminish somewhat during the weekend. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and generally within 250 nm of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a developing low over Deep South Texas, a surface trough along the east coast of Mexico, and a 1029 mb high in the Atlantic is sustaining fresh to strong S to SE winds over much of the central Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf is seeing moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail. Seas are 6-9 ft in an area north of 23N between 87W and 93W, with 3-6 ft seas across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extends westward along 29N into the eastern Gulf this morning, while an old frontal boundary is stalled inland across the Gulf coast states. The front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight, then stall from just N of Tampa Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico by Fri night. Fresh to strong S winds are expected ahead of this front today into tonight, strongest in the central Gulf. Strong to near gale force winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf Thu evening and night. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sun and move SE across the basin by Mon evening. Strong to near gale force N winds will also follow this front in the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Feature Section for information on gale- force winds offshore Colombia this evening. The basin remains under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central and western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces fresh to strong E winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, with winds locally near gale force occurring offshore Colombia as depicted by a scatterometer pass at 1400 UTC today. Rough seas are occurring across much of the southwestern, central, and eastern Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 29N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early morning near the coast of NW Colombia through Thu night. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder of southwestern and central Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W early Thu through Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Mon and Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N42W to 29N61W, with a stationary front then extending from 29N61W to 30N69W. Otherwise, the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds are present from 05N to 23N and west of 35W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also occurring from 13N to 28N and E of 35W. Moderate to fresh E winds and are noted west of 30W between 23N and 26N. Winds are gentle to moderate across all other areas previously unmentioned in the Atlantic discussion waters. Seas are 6-10 ft across the basin, locally up to 11 ft S of 16N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Thu, when a cold front will move into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of 70W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is expected to move eastward into the weekend, and stall E to W along 26N on Sat. The next front will exit the SE U.S. Sun afternoon and reach from near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida late Sun night. $$ Adams