000
AXNT20 KNHC 102321
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Feb 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure centered over the western Atlantic and low pressure 
over northwestern Colombia will continue to support pulsing 
winds to gale force each night and early morning offshore of 
Colombia through Thu night. Rough to very rough seas are 
expected within these winds. Seas will peak at 11 to 13 ft near 
the highest winds. 

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06.5N11W and continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N19W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 04N between
10W and 26W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf waters. Mainly
low clouds, with possible showers, are associated with the frontal
boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the wake of the 
front near SW Louisiana and the upper Texas coast. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds are S of the front under the influence of a ridge.
Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will dominate
much of the week. The above mentioned stationary front will lift
northward on Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu. The front
will stall over the northern Gulf, while shifting southward to near
Veracruz, Mexico before stalling Fri. Southerly winds will strengthen
in the central Gulf midweek ahead of the front. Strong to near gale
winds are expected behind the front, possibly reaching minimal gale
force off Tampico, Mexico briefly Thu evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,
read the Special Feature Section for more details. 

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of area and the 
Colombian low continues to support pulsing winds to gale force 
near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds across the 
remainder of the central Caribbean with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Fresh
to strong NE winds are blowing across the Windward Passage where
seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean while mainly 
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen in the NW 
Caribbean. Strong winds aloft, are producing multi-layer clouds 
across most of the basin. Patches of low level moisture, 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers, are also noted.

For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia,
fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the
remainder of the southwestern and central Caribbean into the 
weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward
Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Moderate
to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of 
the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and
Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean 
Sea through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge covers the entire Atlantic forecast region. This system
is producing mainly moderate to fresh trade winds S of 22N, with
seas of 6 to 9 ft and gentle to moderate winds N of 22N with seas
of 4 to 6 ft, except across the offshore waters of E Florida and
W of the Bahamas where seas are 1 to 3 ft. An area of light and 
variable winds is along the ridge axis, particularly N of 26N-27N
and W of 40W to the coast of Florida.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will remain in control 
of the weather pattern across the Atlantic over the next several 
days supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N into 
the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N. East
swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of 
Puerto Rico through the weekend. A cold front is forecast to clip
the N waters tonight into Tue, then lift northward while weakening.
Looking ahead, another cold front will likely reach the waters E
of NE Florida by Fri.

$$
GR