830 AXNT20 KNHC 100558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Feb 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure northeast of the northwest Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong to near- gale winds in the south-central and portions of the southwestern Caribbean through Thu night. These winds will peak at gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours offshore of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas are expected to peak at 11 to 13 ft near the highest winds. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 03N22W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N22W across 00N30W to north of Belem, Brazil at 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 05N between 10W and 20W, and near the ITCZ from the Equator to 04N between 20W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high over the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are found across the Florida Straits, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through late week, possibly increasing some at the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front that is likely to move off the Texas coast Fri. Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into late week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning offshore Colombia. A surface trough is generating widely scattered showers south of Jamaica. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1028 mb high at the north-central Atlantic to a 1023 mb northeast of the northwest Bahamas is sustaining a trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE to ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are seen at the central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are evident for the eastern and portion of of southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh NE to E trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean through the week, with winds pulsing to strong through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the Lesser Antilles and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front runs southwestward from west of Madeira across 31N20W to 28N23W, then continues as a shear line to 24N37W. Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 150 nm northwest of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Ocean. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb high near 33N39W to a 1023 mb northeast of the northwest Bahamas. These features are supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells north of 27N between 35W and the Georgia/northeastern Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 27N between 35W and Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean west of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N into the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail into late week. E swell will bring rough seas northeast of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico into the weekend. $$ Chan