000
AXNT20 KNHC 091710
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Feb 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: 
A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered along 30N
and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to
support strong to near-gale winds in the south-central Caribbean
through midweek. These winds will peak at gale-force during the 
nighttime and early morning hours offshore of Barranquilla, 
Colombia. Seas are expected to peak at 11 to 13 ft near the 
highest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N13W, then runs
southwestward to 03N20W. An ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02S to 02N between
24W and 33W and between 38W and 44W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends SW from a 1022 mb high over the western
Atlantic across Florida and the Gulf. Moderate SE winds with seas
of 2 to 4 ft dominate the basin, except for the NE Gulf where 
winds are gentle and seas are 2 ft or less. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon
and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through late week. 
Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas through mid-week. A cold front is likely 
to move off the Texas coast late week. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning
offshore Colombia.

High pressure centered N of the region sustains trade winds 
across the entire basin. Strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft 
are present in the north-central and SW basin, as well as in the 
Windward Passage. Fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are 
evident in the eastern basin, including the Mona and Atlantic 
Passages. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft prevail 
for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern 
Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force each night and 
early morning offshore of Colombia through the week. Rough to very
rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest 
winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected 
across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean through 
the week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward
Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the 
remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the 
Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern 
Caribbean Sea through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from the northeastern 
Atlantic across 31N22W to 27N31W, followed by a shear line to
25N36W per latest ASCAT data. Convergent trade winds are 
producing scattered moderate convection from 00N to 04N west of
44W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional 
convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

An elongated 1029 mb high oriented along 33N is supporting gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate swell
north of 24N between 35W and the Georgia/Florida coast. For the 
Atlantic from 03N to 24N west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE winds 
along with 7 to 9 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 
6 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell prevail for the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will 
prevail south of 25N through late week. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail through the middle of the week. East 
swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of 
Puerto Rico through late week.

$$
KRV