554 
AXNT20 KNHC 071815
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Feb 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A strong surface ridge that is to the north of the area will 
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south 
central Caribbean Sea. The winds will pulse to gale-force each 
night in the offshore waters of Colombia, through the weekend. 
Expect rough seas, to a maximum of 12 feet. 

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Mostly fresh, to some fresh-to-strong NE to E winds are elsewhere
from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere 
from 80W westward. Moderate seas cover much of the remainder of 
the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. Some exceptions are for 
slight to moderate seas, in the coastal waters that are from 
Guadeloupe southward, in the coastal waters of Venezuela, and in 
the coastal waters of the countries of Central America, and
elsewhere from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W, to the 
Equator along 34W and along 39W, to 01S43W, to the Equator along
46W/47W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate/
isolated strong is from 07N southward between 30W and 54W.
Isolated moderate is from 06N southward between 06W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 91W/94W from 23N southward, in the SW 
corner of the Gulf, to the northern parts of the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. This trough is a diurnal surface 
trough, with no apparent deep convective precipitation in the 
satellite imagery.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the 
Gulf of Mexico, away from the SW Gulf surface trough.

Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds, and slight seas, cover the
Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle of next week.
Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas into the middle of next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of
Colombia/the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The 
warning period starts tonight. It stops on Saturday morning, and 
it starts again from Saturday night until Sunday morning.

Mostly fresh, to some fresh-to-strong NE to E winds are elsewhere
from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere 
from 80W westward. Moderate seas cover much of the remainder of 
the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. Some exceptions are for 
slight to moderate seas, in the coastal waters that are from 
Guadeloupe southward, in the coastal waters of Venezuela, and in 
the coastal waters of the countries of Central America, and
elsewhere from 80W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 07/1200 UTC, are: 0.14 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.11 in San 
Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.09 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands.
This information is from the Pan American Temperature and 
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western 
Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support 
pulsing winds to gale force each night and early morning offshore 
of Colombia through next week. Rough seas are expected near and to
the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and 
rough seas are expected across the remainder southwestern and 
central Caribbean through the middle of next week, with winds 
pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf
of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally 
fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin. 
East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and Leeward 
Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea through 
early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh to strong NE winds are from the Equator to 24N from 40W 
eastward; from the Equator to 30N between 40W and 52W;, and from
29N southward between 52W and 65W. Fresh easterly winds are from
23N southward between Puerto Rico and central Cuba. Moderate or 
slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough 
seas are from 20N northward from 50W eastward. Moderate seas are 
from 20N northward from 50W westward. Moderate to rough seas are 
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Mainly fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N through Tue 
night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail into early
next week. East swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward 
Islands and NE of Puerto Rico through Sun. 

$$
mt/al