000 AXNT20 KNHC 070525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Feb 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0522 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night offshore of Colombia through the weekend. Peak seas with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N10W to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 16W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf. A trough is analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting gentle SE breezes and slight seas across the basin, except for moderate winds off the Yucatan Channel through the Straits of Florida. No significant convection is evident. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through next week. Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Feature Section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. A broad subtropical ridge north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central and southwest Caribbean, the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia through next week. Locally rough seas are likely near and to the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean through the middle of next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, downwind of Hispaniola,a and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure centered near 41N52W to east-central Florida. Farther east, a trough reaches from 31N41W to 28N54W, with another surface trough extending from 30N40W to 26N46W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas south of 30N between 46W and 71W, and gentle breezes with 5 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 24N and west of 71W. Fresh trades and 7 to 9 ft are noted south of 25N over the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N through Tue night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of 25N and east of 70W through Fri morning. Winds will diminish over these waters thereafter, with gentle to moderate winds continuing into early next week. East swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico this evening through Sun. $$ KRV