564 AXNT20 KNHC 061815 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Feb 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A strong surface ridge that is to the north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. The winds will pulse to gale-force each night offshore of Colombia through early next week. Expect rough seas, to 12 feet. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are elsewhere from 72W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Moderate seas cover much of the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight to moderate seas, in the coastal waters from Guadeloupe southward, in the coastal waters of Venezuela, and in the coastal waters of the countries of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to the Equator along 29W, to 01S39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward between 24W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 91W/93W from 24N southward, in the SW corner of the Gulf, to the northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. This trough is a diurnal surface trough, with no apparent deep convective precipitation in the satellite imagery. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the SW Gulf surface trough. Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds, and slight seas, cover the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of Colombia/the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The warning period starts tonight. It stops on Friday morning, and it starts again from Friday night until Saturday morning. Mostly fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight to moderate seas in the coastal waters from Guadeloupe to Central America. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 06/1200 UTC, are: 0.18 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia. Locally rough seas will be possible near and to the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean through early next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, downwind of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Fresh to strong NE winds are from 30N southward between 56W and 69W, and elsewhere from 26N southward from 57W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 20N northward from 50W eastward. Moderate seas are from 20N northward from 50W westward. Moderate to rough seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh E trade winds will prevail south of 25N through Mon night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of 25N and east of 70W through Fri morning. Winds will diminish over these waters thereafter, with gentle to moderate winds continuing into early next week. East swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico this evening through Sun. $$ mt/al