000 AXNT20 KNHC 060458 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Feb 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0458 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Peak seas with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03S38W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are depicted from 00N to 03N between 22W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 04N between 30W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure is centered off Cedar Key, Florida near 29N83W. A surface trough is analyzed over eastern Bay of Campeche and is producing isolated moderate convection south of 20N and east of 92W. This trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and through the Florida Straits, with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, the ridge associated with aforementioned area of high pressure supports gentle to moderate winds, with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will occur each afternoon and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and through the Florida Straits as a surface trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula daily and moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the basin will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Feature Section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. A broad subtropical ridge north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central and southwest Caribbean, the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Locally very rough seas will be possible near and to the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean through this weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, downwind of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will occur across the remainder of the basin. E swell will lead to rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge of high pressure associated to a 1030 mb high pressure over the NE U.S. extends to 28N. This pattern is supporting moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 28N between 58W and 73W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are found south of 24N, with strong winds near the northern entrance to the Windward Passage. Farther east, a ridge is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the subtropical waters, and fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft farther south over the tropical Atlantic, the strongest winds are found east of 16W. Another area of fresh to strong winds is found near the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E trade winds will prevail south of 25N through Mon night. An increasing pressure gradient due to a building high pressure in the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of 25N and east of 70W tonight into Fri morning. Winds will diminish in this region thereafter, with gentle to moderate winds continuing into early next week. Developing east swell will lead to rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico Thu evening through Sun. $$ KRV