696 AXNT20 KNHC 032239 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Feb 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Peak seas with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...Updated The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to near 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection ongoing from 02N to 04N between 21W and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure centered over Pensacola, Florida to the coast of Tamaulipas in the west-central Gulf. Offshore platforms in the northwest Gulf indicate the morning fog across the region has mostly lifted. The pattern is supporting gentle breezes across the basin, except for moderate breezes along the coast of Yucatan. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in place across the Gulf of Mexico this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. Patchy fog may set up over much of the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast at night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche as a surface trough develops over the Peninsula and moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz diurnally. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on expected gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia. Aside from the occurrence of gale-force winds off northwestern Colombia, the gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure present in the southwestern Caribbean and in Colombia continues to allow for fresh to strong trade winds in the eastern, north-central and in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. These winds sustain moderate to rough seas in these waters. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of mostly 4 to 6 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean. Lighter trades of gentle to moderate speeds are south of 18N and west of 86W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas with these winds are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, in addition to the gale force winds discussed in the Special Features section, NE to E trades will be fresh to strong in the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba. Otherwise, E swell will support locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean before diminishing beginning tomorrow night. Large E swell will resume across the Leeward Islands offshore zones Thu into at least Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N70W, west of weak 1020 mb low pressure near 32N58W. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes north of 22N west of 55W, with 4 to 6 ft seas in NE swell. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 10 ft seas persist elsewhere across the North Atlantic south of 31N, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds 10 to 12 ft from 10N to 20N between 25W and 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, high north of the region will promote generally moderate or weaker winds across the offshore waters for the next several days, except for fresh to strong NE winds across the approach to the Windward Passage. Otherwise, rough seas in E swell should develop across the offshore waters east of 70W and south of 24N late Thu through at least Sat night. $$ Christensen