000 AXNT20 KNHC 030447 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Feb 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force each night offshore of Colombia this week. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted strong to gale-force NE winds off Colombia. Peak seas to 12 ft are expected with these winds in the SW Caribbean offshore waters between Panama and Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 00N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present south of 04N and between Africa and NE Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico dominates the basin, supporting fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico this week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Aside from the gale-force winds off NW Colombia, the strong ridge located north of the area continues to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the eastern, north-central and SW Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. These winds sustain moderate to rough seas in these waters. Moderate NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated, shallow passing showers. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a tight pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and predominant high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas to 12 ft are expected with these winds in the SW Caribbean offshore waters between Panama and Colombia. Expect moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas across the eastern, central and southwestern Caribbean through the week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds in the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through the week. Otherwise, E swell will support locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1034 mb high pressure system located just south of Nova Scotia that extends southward to the Bahamas. The remnants of a couple of frontal boundaries provide the instability for some shallow, light showers slowly traversing the basin. The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong force easterly winds off the entrance of the Windward Passage. These winds support 6-8 ft seas in the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found south of 25N and west of 55W, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned between the Azores and Madeira Islands. An scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago captured fresh to strong anticyclonic winds across much of the central and eastern Atlantic, especially south of 28N. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. For the forecast, a surface trough, remnants of the front previously stationary, will linger along the Florida seaboard Mon. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will dominate the region the remainder week with the tail of a cold front possibly clipping the northern offshore waters Mon night through Wed. South of 25N, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in E to NE swell will prevail. $$ Delgado