000 AXNT20 KNHC 022312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Feb 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The most recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of strong to gale force NE winds within about 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, where seas are in the 10 to 12 ft range. Winds will continue to pulse to gale force each night offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a tight pressure gradient between low pressure over northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas in excess of 12 ft are expected near and to the west of these winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends SW to near 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from the Equator to 05N between 05W and 13W, and from 00N to 03N between 15W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from central Florida to near 24N85W. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche. High pressure of 1024 mb located near Mobile, Alabama dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Under this weather pattern, mainly light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of moderate NE winds over the SE Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh NW winds W of the aforementioned surface trough. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the southern half of the Gulf, and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere. Low level clouds, with embedded showers, are affecting the west-central and SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico this week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. Pulsing winds to fresh speeds are expected each evening and night near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed night due to local effects. Seas will build to 4 to 5 ft with these winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. High pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong NE to E trade winds in the central Caribbean, with strong to gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola and Jamaica. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia mentioned in the Special Features section, expect moderate to fresh trades and rough seas across the eastern, central and southwestern Caribbean through the week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds in the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate NE winds will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean before fresh to locally strong NE winds develop tonight, pulsing through the week. Mixed E and NE swell will support locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through at least midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to 28N70W where it becomes a stationary front that continues westward to central Florida. A band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers, is associated with the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed in the wake of the front while mainly light and variable winds are noted to the SE of the front to about 26N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft ahead and behind the front. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1029 mb located W of the Madeira Islands near 32N25W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Fresh to strong trades are noted around the souther periphery of the ridge, covering the waters south of 26N and E of 40W, and S of 20N between 40W and 60W. Seas are mainly 8 to 12 ft in these waters. Elsewhere W of 60W, winds are moderate to locally fresh, except near the approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, with the exception of 7 to 9 ft NE of Leeward Islands. For the forecast, the cold front will will progress eastward and gradually dissipate. High pressure will build in the central Atlantic, supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas north of 25N this week. South of 25N, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in E to NE swell will prevail. $$ GR